Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Thursday, June 18.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Brewers F5 -128, 1u (Bet to -145)
- S.Drohan over 5.5 Strikeouts +116, 0.5u (Bet to 100)
- Twins/Brewers under 8 (-118), 0.59u (Bet through 8)
- J.Ryan over 6.5 Strikeouts +100, 0.5u (Bet to -110)
- LEAN: Giants +125 full game or +102 F5
- Cardinals +104, 1u (Bet to -110)
- Athletics -130, 0.65u (Bet to -140)
Guardians @ Brewers Picks
I believe I’ve been fairly complementary when having the opportunity to write about Patrick Messick this season. How could you not when the guy hasn’t produced a non-pitch modeling estimator higher than his 3.65 SIERA, while allowing just 6.1% Barrels/BBE and a 34 HardHit%?
We can even debate those pitch modeling grades, as he’s been valued at a 4.37 Bot ERA, but 105 Pitching+.
However, it’s undeniable that Messick has displayed a TTO (Times Through the Order) penalty:
First TTO: 1.60 ERA, .222 wOBA, 23 K-BB% (126 BF)
Second TTO: 2.03 ERA, .298 wOBA, 11.1 K-BB% (126 BF)
Three TTO: 6.19 ERA, .356 wOBA, 20.6 K-BB% (68 BF)
You could argue that his K-BB%, the most important indicator pops back up the third time through and rather than argue about the sample size, I’d mention how his second time through numbers could be much worse with an 11.1% mark.
While the Brewers have just a 96 wRC+ against LHP this year, they’re now fully healthy with Thursday’s projected lineup averaging a 137 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 118 mark against southpaws since last year.
In fact, the first six in Rotowire’s projected lineup have at least a 110 wRC+ over the last 30 days with Jackson Chourio and Andrew Vaughn hitting the 170 mark in both categories.
Gary Sanchez’s presence should allow William Contreras to DH the day game after a night game. Sanchez has a 187 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 125 wRC+ against LHP since 2025.
Across the field, Shane Drohan started the season with an awful start against the team that traded him this offseason (Boston) before quickly being moved to the bullpen and excelling in a multi-inning role.
He was moved back into the rotation once injuries hit and has sustained his bullpen work (22.4 K-BB%, 95.4 mph) in three starts (20.3 K-BB%, 95.3 mph). Drohan has also posted a 3.24 Bot ERA and 106 Pitching+ since moving back into the rotation with just 16 hard hit batted balls (35.6%).
While the Milwaukee lineup is healthy, the Guardians just placed three starters on the IL, including their superstar Jose Ramirez and rookie Chase DeLauter. Their projected lineup is down to an 82wRC+ against LHP since last season, even worse than their team 88 wRC+ on the road this year.
Kyle Manzardo (104), who usually sits against LHP with a healthy roster, and Stuart Fairchild (105) are their top bats against southpaws by nearly 15 points of wRC+.
The Brewers also project for a small base running edge (4 BRR) with defenses likely being comparably average, though the home team should be strong up the middle with both Brice Turang and Joey Ortiz leading the lineup with 4 FRV (Fielding Run Value) each.
As you can see above in BARTOLO, bullpens both rank in the top third of the league, but Cleveland has better estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) by exactly half a run on average over the last month.
Thus, I’m finding better value in a slightly lower F5 price (-128 FD) and that should be right about the time Messick is starting his third trip through the order.
Hopefully, the Guardians will find out that you don’t mess with the Drohan!
In fact, considering that Drohan has hit the 16 SwStr% mark in two of his three starts and only not in the one at Coors and that the RW projected Cleveland lineup includes six batters with a strikeout rate greater than 26.5% against LHP since last year, I'm also adding his strikeout prop, which just popped up on FanDuel.
Picks: Brewers F5 -128, 1u (Bet to -145), S.Drohan over 5.5 Strikeouts +116, 0.5u (Bet to 100)
Twins @ Brewers Picks
In Texas, we usually start with the park, mentioning that it’s the worst (lowest) run environment in the league, 15% below average with the roof closed, according to Statcast (three year rolling park factors), and with temperatures nearing 100 degrees, you can be sure it will be closed.
The market it starting to catch up, but unders in this park remain a gold mine the last few seasons and are hitting at a two to one rate this year (21-10-1). It’s a 9.15 unit profit and 30% ROI for single unit plays.
I understand if Jack Leiter’s volatility frightens you. It makes me uncomfortable as well. He’s been very feast or famine with at least four earned runs in half of his 14 starts, but fewer than three in five of the other seven. Sometimes he even starts out as one and ends up as the other.
Maybe it’s of slight comfort that his estimators (4.15 BotERA – 4.57 xERA) range lower than his actual ERA (4.97) with a .300 BABIP and 71.1 LOB% due for some regression.
The Twins are an average offense, though their projected lineup averages a 123 wRC+ over the last 30 days with only Tristan Gray (80) below average.
Alternatively, this is a terrific spot for the fly ball prone Joe Ryan, who has six quality starts in his last seven tries, allowing just 13 total runs over that stretch with a 26.3 K-BB%. It increases to 29.1% over his last six.
On the season, only Ryan’s 3.65 dERA is more than one-third of a run removed from his 3.17 ERA.
Ryan is averaging 25 batters per start over this seven start run and has struck out at least seven in five of his last six. His strikeout rate against RHBs is 32% since last season and with Corey Seager and Evan Carter both out again, Texas hardly has the LHBs to attack him with, in either quality or quantity.
Even projecting just 24 batters, I’d expect Ryan to face 14 RHBs and there are only two batters in the entire projected lineup below a 20.5 K% against RHP since last year.
The park and scheduled umpire (Lance Barrett) add a combined boost of around 7% to strikeouts as well.
If you can catch a price around -110 or better (B365 currently 100), I like Ryan to go over his strikeout prop (6.5), along with the game under.
DraftKings is currently floating a total of 8 (-118 to the under), though other sites are already down to 7.5, where the Jack Leiter part of it might just be a bit too risky.
Picks: Under 8 (-118), 0.59u (Bet through 8), J.Ryan over 6.5 Strikeouts +100, 0.5u (Bet to -110)
Giants @ Braves Picks
This one is more of a lean with current market prices for both the full game and F5 right on the edge of playability.
Martin Perez has a 2.90 ERA that’s more than a run batter than Landon Roupp’s 4.24, but I still have Roupp the better pitcher by half a run and I will explain why.
Roupp doesn’t have a single estimator reaching four. In fact, only his Bot ERA (3.87) and SIERA (3.77) exceed 3.5 and the former is challenged by a 107 Pitching+.
He has allowed 27 runs (25 earned) over his last 39 innings, but has also allowed two earned runs or less in half of those eight starts, while in the worst one of them, an eight run outing in Milwaukee with more walks than strikeouts, it was revealed to be an outing where his back locked up.
Not counting that start, Roupp has an 18.3 K-BB% with only 28 hard hit batted balls in the other seven combined.
That’s right, he’s averaging an absurd four hard hit batted balls in the other seven starts and even despite the 10 hard hit batted balls in Milwaukee (71.4%), he has a 29.9 HardHit% on the season.
Meanwhile, Perez has managed contact quite well too (7% Barrels/BBE, 38 HardHit%) with a 12.6 K-BB% that’s a bit worse than league average, but he doesn’t have a single non-FIP estimator within a run of his ERA, including the worst pitch modeling on the board (5.10 Bot ERA, 93 Pitching+).
His .230 BABIP is more than 70 points below his career average and his 80.2 LOB% is almost nine points above his career rate.
Then we have the Atlanta offense with a 108 wRC+ against RHP that’s eight points higher than San Francisco’s 100 against LHP.
However, this Giants’ offense is suddenly red hot. They’ve admittedly played almost every road series in the highest run environments in the league over the last month, but wRC+ tries to strip away those park effects and it works to some extent.
Rotowire’s projected Giants’ lineup has a 153 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 113 against LHP since last season compared to the Braves’ 109 and 106.
I’m not saying the Giants are now better than the Braves, but even with Drake Baldwin back, Ronald Acuna Jr. is still missing, while Bryce Eldrige (216 wRC+ L30 days) is tearing the cover off the ball and has a 186 wRC+ against LHP so far.
The Braves are at home and project a small base running edge (4 BRR) along with larger defensive (15 FRV) and bullpen ones. The Atlanta bullpen has beaten the San Francisco one by more than a run and a quarter over the last 30 days (FIP, xFIP, SIERA average), while there’s a 28 team and 1.37 wFIP gap between the two via BARTOLO.
Still, with the pitchers and offenses perhaps being misvalued, I find the current F5 (102) and full game (+125) San Francisco prices just shy of being actionable. A number of factors could nudge that either past the threshold or former from it once lineups come out on Thursday.
Picks: LEAN: Giants +125 full game or +102 F5
Cardinals @ Royals Picks
This is the second start in a row that I’m backing Matthew Liberatore and lest you think he’s the reason, I’ll start right off with the notion that I consider Noah Cameron the better pitcher by nearly two-thirds of a run right now.
The short of it is that Cameron’s estimator range (3.48 FIP to 4.22 Bot ERA) beats Liberatore’s (4.14 xFIP to 5.43 xERA) by a significant margin. They have nearly the same strikeout and ground ball rates, but Cameron’s walk rate is exactly three points better and his hard hit rate exactly five points lower.
However, it’s every other aspect of this game where I favor the Cardinals, with the exception of the Royals being at home, which is of little value, though not none.
The Cardinals have a 17 point better wRC+ against LHP this year. By projected lineups that extends to 21 points since last year. Over the last month, expected St Louis starters beat expected Kansas City starters by 48 points of wRC+.
That’s a large edge which I give the road team by 20 points.
The Cardinals also project the better defense by 19 FRV and better base running team by 3 BRR.
Lastly, St Lous bullpen estimators average more than a run and a third better than Kansas City over the last month. BARTOLO only sees a three team gap on the season, but still in St Louis’s favor.
I’m backing the Cardinals at a dog price (+104 FD) and endorse doing so to -110, though dropping to half a unit if it passes the even money threshold.
Picks: Cardinals +104, 1u (Bet to -110)
Angels @ Athletics Picks
Jose Soriano is expected, but not yet confirmed, though I’m not concerned the Angels will start someone better than him because it won’t be Reid Detmers.
Soriano is coming off five shutout innings against the Rays in his best start since winning the Cy Young in April.
Over his last nine starts, he’s allowed 28 runs (26 earned) in 49.1 innings with just a 50.4 GB% (60% career), 41.7 HardHit%, which has led to more barrels (8.6%), and a 9.1 K-BB%.
Soriano is still missing bats during this stretch (13.7 SwStr%), but reaching ball four too often (13.2%) before he gets to strike three.
He’ll have a tough assignment on the road where those walks can get him more trouble than usual, especially if he’s not generating ground balls at his usual rate. The A’s have a 124 wRC+ at home, a double digit walk rate at home and against RHP and a projected lineup with a 120 wRC+ against RHP since last season.
Facing Soriano will be an exciting rookie, Gage Jump, who has allowed seven runs over 10 innings in his two home starts against a tough Seattle offense and a not as tough Colorado one, but in a ridiculous Las Vegas park, while allowing the Astros and Cubs a combined one run over 13.1 innings on the road.
Jump has allowed just two barrels with a 29.9 HardHit% and league average 13.8 K-BB%, but with an above average 11.6 SwStr%. He’s reached at least 12.5% in three of his four starts.
Fangraphs ranks Jump the second best A’s prospect and 77th overall with a 50 Future Value grade.
Perhaps most telling at this small sample point is a 3.42 Bot ERA with a 64 mark (111 Pitching+) on his 96.6 mph fastball.
One would think that a predominantly and potentially entirely right-handed Angels’ lineup would have some sort of an edge on a LHP, but they have just a team 96 wRC+ against southpaws this year, while the projected lineup has an 81 mark against them since last season.
Both teams have terrible defenses, but the Angels are worse. The Angels also have the sixth worst bullpen estimators over the last 30 days and are BARTOLO’s 22nd ranked unit on the year.
But basically, I wrote all this just so I could quote the once great David Lee Roth, “Might as well JUMP!”
Thank you, I'll see myself out now.
Picks: Athletics -130, 0.65u (Bet to -140)
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, June 18
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Brewers F5 -128, 1u (Bet to -145)
- S.Drohan over 5.5 Strikeouts +116, 0.5u (Bet to 100)
- Twins/Brewers under 8 (-118), 0.59u (Bet through 8)
- J.Ryan over 6.5 Strikeouts +100, 0.5u (Bet to -110)
- LEAN: Giants +125 full game or +102 F5
- Cardinals +104, 1u (Bet to -110)
- Athletics -130, 0.65u (Bet to -140)
