Red Sox vs. Orioles Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Sunday, August 23)

Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds

Odds as of Sunday at 11:00 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

After last night’s walk off win, the Orioles are now within one game of reaching .500. Boston’s season is virtually over at this point, so the Red Sox will be playing for pride from here on out. They’ll send Zack Godley to the mound in hopes he can get past the fourth inning for the first time this season.

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Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

BaseRuns is a formula designed to estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score (or allow) given their underlying offensive (or defensive) performance. In other words, BaseRuns is a context-neutral run estimator used to evaluate teams. Major League average for an individual batter per game is 0.50 BaseRuns and a for a pitcher its 0.52 BaseRuns per inning. 

Red Sox Probable Starter

Zack Godley, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Zack Godley has been nothing short of terrible this season. He has yet to make it past the fourth inning in any of his appearances and has an xFIP of 5.32.

Godley is primarily a curveball pitcher, but he hasn’t been very effective with it. Opposing batters achieved a .305 wOBA against his curveball in 2019. He also uses a cutter and sinker, neither of which has been particularly good over the past few years.

Nonetheless, Godley has been leaning more heavily on that cutter in 2020, throwing it 40.1% of the time. Predictably, it’s been getting shelled: Opponents have hit .294 against it. Baltimore’s lineup ranks eighth in MLB against cutters and should be looking forward to teeing off against Godley this afternoon.

Orioles Projected Lineup

Baltimore’s hitters have far exceeded preseason expectations, achieving a .330 wOBA and 107 wRC+. The crazy part of their success offensively is the four players with wOBAs over .400 who you probably wouldn’t have predicted before the season: Anthony Santander, Chance Sisco, Jose Iglesias and Pedro Severino.

With Zack Godley’s career trending in the wrong direction, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Orioles keep the bats going on Sunday.

Bullpens

The Red Sox bullpen has been a disaster. Boston’s relievers have a 4.85 xFIP, which ranks 23rd in MLB. To make matters worse, the Red Sox just traded two of their best relievers — Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree — to the Phillies on Friday.

Projections and Pick

This is probably going to be a high-scoring game with these two starting pitchers on the mound. Baltimore’s offense has been a surprise so far, and I think they’ll keep the bats going on Sunday. Since I have 5.50 runs projected for Baltimore, I will be betting their team total of 4.5 at -114 (DraftKings) and I would bet it up to -121.

Pick: Orioles Team Total Over 4.5 (-114)

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