Sunday MLB Betting Odds, Picks: Three Best Bets, Including Marlins vs. Dodgers (May 16)
Mark Brown/Getty Images. Pictured: Florida Marlins starting pitcher Pablo López.
- We have another loaded Sunday slate on the Major League Baseball card, with 15 games on the docket.
- Check out our analysts picks below, including an angle on the Marlins vs. Dodgers showdown.
We have another loaded Major League Baseball slate on the Sunday docket, with 15 games taking place.
Our Action Network baseball analysts have three best bets for you on the card, so let's see what direction they're going in on their matinee selections.
MLB Odds & Picks
Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
Tanner McGrath: I love the Red Sox to pull off the home sweep.
I'm specifically targeting the pitching matchups in this game, as I don't need to tell you who the better offensive team is. Nathan Eovaldi has been solid, while José Quintana is an automatic fade.
Eovaldi has had a few rough starts, but he's one of the best starters when he's performing well. On the back of his triple-digit fastball, Eovaldi is on pace to post career lows in exit velocity (86.1 mph), hard-hit percentage (33.3%) and barrel percentage (4.5%). All three stats that rank among the top 20% of qualified pitchers.
The Angels are 24th in baseball in weighted fastball runs created (-5.5), so I'm banking on Eovaldi blowing his fastball past that lineup.
Meanwhile, Quintana has been terrible. Through six starts, the former Chicago resident has posted a 9.00 ERA and a 2.14 WHIP. While he strikes out a decent number of hitters, he's also walking a ridiculous 17.4% of batters faced.
When he isn't striking out or walking hitters, Quintana allowing a fairly high exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. Specifically, teams have been destroying his curveball, as he throws it about a third of the time and is allowing a .364 BA and a .438 wOBA on the pitch. Given that Boston paces the league in weighted curveball runs created (14.7), I'm expecting a rough start from Quintana.
If the pitching matchups aren't enough to convince you, the Angels' bullpen ranks 29th in FIP over the past seven days (6.47) and the invincible Mike Trout is in the middle of a 5-for-36 skid.
I'm playing the Red Sox moneyline at anything better than -140 odds.
Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Kenny Ducey: I've been championing Freddy Peralta on here for a month or so, and I certainly won't stop now. After a rough outing at home against the Phillies a week and a half ago, some were doubting just how good this young righty was. Well, he came back and allowed just one single hit in seven shutout innings over the Cardinals earlier this week with eight strikeouts.
This is who Peralta is — a dominant righty with incredible swing-and-miss stuff. His 1.94 xERA ranks in the top three (yes, three) percent of the league, and his strikeout rate is nearing 40% which is downright insane. Any way you slice it, this guy has been unhittable, which has been the case for most of his career.
On the other hand, Huascar Ynoa has pitched a little better than his peripherals would indicate he should be looking. His BABIP is down to .221 from his .273 career average, and his strand rate is at a beefy 90.9%. There's that, and the fact that his expected ERA according to Statcast is over two full runs higher than his 2.23 ERA.
He's due for some big-time regression, so I will take Peralta to keep shoving as a short home favorite. Bet this to -130 odds.
Florida Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Matt Trebby: Since the start of last season, Pablo López has been incredibly reliable for the Marlins' rotation. In 19 starts during that span, he has a 3.38 ERA and 3.27 FIP that backs up his success.
The Dodgers are going with a bullpen day as they try to figure out their rotation without Dustin May, who is out for the season due to Tommy John surgery. Jimmy Nelson will open for a couple innings if things go well.
While Miami's lineup hasn't exactly been a good to start the season, Los Angeles losing Corey Seager to a broken hand is a big blow. The soon-to-be free-agent shortstop was having another stellar season hitting behind Mookie Betts atop the Dodgers' lineup.
Gavin Lux will likely move to shortstop in Seager's absence, but his void in the lineup is a big one, especially given the rest of the Dodgers' injuries.
Getting +135 is a good number at BetMGM on the Marlins. The Dodgers are always heavy favorites, but Miami has a strong starter on the mound and is due to take one from this series in Los Angeles.