Saturday MLB Picks: Our Favorite Bets for Red Sox vs. Yankees, Nationals vs. Orioles, More
Steven Ryan/Getty Images. Pictured: Juan Soto.
- Looking for some quick MLB betting picks for Saturday? Our staff's got you covered with four best bets.
- Our experts are targeting an over/under, team total, first-five and full-game moneyline across three games in Saturday’s loaded 16-game MLB slate.
- Read on for a complete breakdown on each of our favorite Saturday MLB bets.
After a busy 14-game slate yesterday, we once again have a jam-packed MLB schedule on tap for Saturday, featuring 16 games and two double-headers.
Action kicks off at 1:10 p.m. ET, but our staff is focused on the evening slate. We’re targeting four positions — an over/under, team total, first-five and full-game moneyline — across the following three spots:
- 6:05 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
- 7:07 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
- 7:35 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles
Odds as of Saturday at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Advanced Stats Glossary
FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.
wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.
wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.
Collin Wilson: Mets vs. Phillies Under 9 (-109)
There is reason to look at Steven Matz and wonder if the Phillies could go over the full game total all by their lonesome. Matz has been horrendous in recent games, giving up 13 earned runs over 7.1 innings pitched. The southpaw is well over career norms in fly ball percentage and BABIP while his strikeout rate has remained the same.
In fairness, Matz’s 4.16 xFIP thus far suggests that he may be the victim of some bad luck to open the season. Nevertheless, the Mets bullpen will certainly be in play, which may help our cause. New York’s relievers rank 11th in xFIP and ninth in strikeout rate.
Umpire Marty Foster is also here to help, as Foster reports a 233-194 record on the under during his umpiring career. Foster has earned under bettors +20.66 units with an average runs per game at 8.7.
On the mound for Philadelphia will be Aaron Nola, who averages 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings and a xFIP of 1.83. Those numbers rank second and first, respectively, in MLB.
Stuckey: Red Sox F5 (+140) & Full-Game Moneyline (+148) vs. Yankees
Yesterday, we bet on two teams with under .500 records against two first-place teams. Fortunately, that worked out. And hopefully it does again today with the lowly Boston Red Sox, who have lost five straight overall and 12-of-13 in the Bronx. Sounds fun, right?
I really don’t like betting on this Red Sox team — or against the Yankees this year — but this price is simply too high. I’ve pretty much stayed away from fading the Bombers outside of James Paxton starts. The southpaw had back surgery in February and is still trying to work some things out early in the season. One of the biggest red flags has been a major dip in velocity, which has decreased about 3 mph across the board.
He did have 11 Ks in his last start, but the Rays really helped him out. And even then, Paxton’s velocity still lagged behind his career averages. Boston already saw him this year and roughed him up pretty good in a short three-inning outing.
Meanwhile, Nathan Eovaldi has had no issues with speed, as his heat still sits in the upper 90s. He’s off to a strong start despite some unlucky underlying metrics. Eovaldi is also clearly not afraid of the Yankees or Yankee Stadium, where he used to pitch. In eight career appearances in New York against the Yankees, he boasts a 1-1 record with a dazzling 1.95 ERA. Five of those eight appearances were starts.
The Yankees lineup is still very strong but they are at least missing Aaron Judge and Stanton, which certainly doesn’t hurt Boston’s chances. I split this bet up with first five-inning number in order to limit some of the pain of relying on the brutal Boston bullpen.
BJ Cunningham: Nationals Team Total Over 5.5 (+102) vs. Orioles
The Nationals offense has been pretty average so far with a .321 wOBA and 100 wRC+. However, they’ve been on fire over the past week with a .366 wOBA and 130 wRC+. Washington has mashed 13 home runs over the past week, which is the most in MLB during that span.
Juan Soto’s return to the lineup has completely revitalized the Nationals offense. In Soto’s nine games, he has a .412 batting average, a .569 wOBA, and five home runs. With Soto back in the lineup, the Nats offense looks like a World Series contender again. They should have no trouble against a weak right-hander like Asher Wojciechowski.
Wojciechowski is a very below average righty. ZIPS projections have his FIP at 6.01, which is the equivalent of someone who should be in AAA. His biggest issue is the home run ball. Last season he gave up 17 long balls in only 82.1 innings pitched, which led to a 1.86 HR/9 rate.
Wojciechowski faced the Nationals six days ago but only pitched 3.2 innings, allowing three hits and no runs. Despite his short outing, the Nationals nonetheless benefit from having seen his stuff so recently.
The Orioles bullpen has been taxed with pitching 29.2 innings over the past week. Their relievers been much better than expected, but a tired bullpen against the Nationals offense is a recipe for a disaster.
I am going to pick on Asher Wojciechowski and the Orioles bullpen today by betting the Nationals team total. I have Washington projected for 6.16 runs in this game, so I think there is some good value on the Nats over.