The Milwaukee Brewers host the Toronto Blue Jays on April 14, 2026. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on BREW.
The Brewers are favored by -126 on the moneyline and by +1.5 on the run line. The Blue Jays are +104 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Blue Jays vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Blue Jays vs Brewers Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Brewers Pick: Under 7 (-102; Play to -125)
My Blue Jays vs Brewers best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Brewers Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +163 | 7 -118o / -102u | +104 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -199 | 7 -118o / -102u | -126 |
- Blue Jays vs Brewers spread: Blue Jays -1.5 (+163), Brewers +1.5 (-199)
- Blue Jays vs Brewers over/under: 7 (-118o/-102u)
- Blue Jays vs Brewers moneyline: Blue Jays +104, Brewers -126
Blue Jays vs Brewers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Kevin Gausman (TOR) | Stat | RHP Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 2.08/1.80 | ERA /xERA | 3.31/3.15 |
| 1.29/1.39 | FIP / xFIP | 3.37/2.61 |
| 0.63 | WHIP | 1.04 |
| 37.5% | K-BB% | 28.4% |
| 51.4% | GB% | 53.6% |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 114 |
| 114 | Location+ | 88 |
Blue Jays vs Brewers Preview
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
Following a pair of dominant starts, where he struck out 21 of 40 A’s and Rockies without a walk over 12 one run innings (three hits), Kevin Gausman is coming off his first real test of the 2026 season, coming up two outs shy of the worst version of a quality start against the Dodgers.
We can hardly fault him for that, but Gausman will be taking his act on the road for the first time this year, likely pitching under another roof on Tuesday night in Milwaukee with some fantastic pitch modeling grades (2.12 Bot ERA, 116 Pitching+) over his three starts.
Gausman has been throwing his splitter a career high 47.7% of the time (including 50% against the Dodgers), burying it just below the strike zone and it has been dominant.
I could probably do an entire article on Gausman’s splitter this year, but it’s dropping two inches more, resulting in amazing pitch modeling evaluations (70 PB, 128 Pitching+). While it’s still generating nearly the same Whiff rate (38.9%) as last year, the wOBA and xwOBA against it are below .200, which is around 40 points better than last year.
The three Brewers with the most success against splitters since the start of the 2025 season are William Contreras, Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio. Only Contreras is expected to be playing in this game.
While the top five in the projected lineup (Turang, Contreras, Bauers, Sanchez and Mitchell) all have at least a 130 wRC+ this season, the combined lineup has an even 100 wRC+ vs RHP since last season and the Brewers have an overall team 68 wRC+ in the last week before an off day on Monday.
Perkins and Ortiz are below a 50 wRC+ vs RHP since last season with a sub-40 wRC+ overall this year.
Some positive news is that the Milwaukee lineup should retain a positive base running presence with Contreras the only negative in that department.
This should be a navigable spot for Gausman with an elite defense behind him. Despite their .310 BABIP allowed so far this year, the projected Toronto defense (also with some injuries) still boasted a 34 Fielding Run Value last season.
Tyler Heineman is a solid defensive replacement for Alejandro Kirk and may be able to neutralize whatever flaws Gausman has holding runners.
Fangraphs projects Blue Jays relievers as a top third of the league bullpen (3.87 ERA/3.93 FIP) and they’ve been even better than that, averaging the fourth best relief group estimators in the league (3.71 FIP/2.91 xFIP/2.76 SIERA).
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
I’m fortunate enough to be covering a second consecutive Jacob Misiorowski start and…
(checks notes)
…he’s good. And a lot of fun to watch.
While emphasizing his ability to dominate (41.8 K%, 16.6 SwStr%, 53.6 GB% and just two barrels on 28 batted balls this year), I noted that his control/command is the lone concern.
Not so much that he puts people on base (13.4 BB% in 2026) because the next batters have been near 50/50 to strike out, but because he’s thrown at least 94 pitches in each of his three starts and only recorded four sixth inning outs so far.
The bullpen usually gets a fair amount of work in his starts, which isn’t necessarily always a bad thing, as we’ll see later.
It was a cold one at Fenway his last time out, but the Miz held his season velocity (98.8 mph) and struck out 10 in his toughest start of the year. However, three straight walks in the sixth inning knocked him out of the game after he’d struck out Roman Anthony to start the inning. All three would come around to score on DL Hall.
Misiorowski’s toughest start of the season both showcased his upside and a nearly worst-case scenario, as he wasn’t even around to strand the runners he put on.
The fastball is down 0.7 mph from last season, but that’s only at the major league level (99.3 mph). AAA guns “only” had him at 97.7. He’s also throwing it more often this season (62.3% to 55.1%). The whiff rate is up from 32.5% to 43.5%, despite a small drop in pitch modeling (59 PB, 112 P+).
The result has been barely above average overall pitch modeling grades in 2026 (3.94 Bot ERA, 103 Pitching+). You would be entirely correct in guessing this is due to poor command/location (43 BotCmd, 88 Location+).
Normally, the Toronto lineup would be one to fear and a source of potential difficulty for a power pitcher. However, injuries to George Springer, Addison Barger and Alejandro Kirk have forced some inferior bats with higher strikeout rates into play.
Tuesday’s projected nine via Rotowire and MLBstartingnine.com averages just a 97 wRC+ and 20.8 K% vs RHP since last season. The Blue Jays as a team have just a 98 wRC+ vs RHP this year.
Japanese import Kazuma Okamoto has blasted fastballs (4.9 wFA/C), but also has a 41.3 K% vs RHP. Otherwise, Vlad Jr.’s fastball proficiency (1.4 wFA/C since last season) may be the Miz’s biggest individual matchup concern.
The Misiorowski/Contreras combination has been efficient at stopping the running game, while the Blue Jays are a neutral base running team throughout the lineup without much of a base stealing threat.
The Milwaukee projected defense was nearly as strong as their counterparts last year (20 FRV), while the bullpen projects just slightly better (3.81 ERA/3.92 FIP) and has been just about as expected (3.63 FIP/3.96 xIP/3.84 SIERA).
Blue Jays vs Brewers Picks
While temperatures in the 60s may not necessitate a closed roof, the threat of rain might. That’ll be my assumption here, though there is a hotline to call, listed on the team website at MLB.com when you look up roof status.
With said roof closed, American Family Field is a bottom five run environment in the league (92 Park Run Factor via Statcast). The run environment only increases to 96 on average with the roof open and this would be the among the worst conditions they would consider opening the roof for.
Tuesday’s umpire is not yet known for the opening game of the series.
With a pair of potentially dominant pitchers, who have leaned mostly that way in each of their first three starts and significant injuries to both lineups dropping either (projected) to no higher than a 100 wRC+ vs RHP since last season, this starts to look like an under.
Add in a pair of the best defenses, despite injuries and two of the top projected and performing bullpens, who both had Monday off, and I see a strong case to back a low total staying under.
Pick: Under 7 (-102; Play to -125)
