Wilson’s MLB Umpire Betting Guide (5/8): When To Trust a Getaway Game Under
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Craig Counsell and Ryan Blakney
- Collin Wilson dives deep into umpire data to find betting value on Wednesday's MLB slate.
- He's counting on one "getaway game" this afternoon and explains why they can be profitable with certain umpires behind the plate.
A “getaway game” is the last game in the series between two opponents, with at least one team getting out of town right after. Not only do players, managers and umpires want to get a head start on their next destination, but the league implemented earlier start times for these situations starting last season.
There have been instances where umpires have let players know that strike zone may be larger than usual in getaway games. Wednesday presents a few of these situations.
Before diving into the analysis below, be sure to check out colleague Danny Donahue’s complementary piece about the importance of monitoring the boys in blue. This column will integrate advanced stats on projected pitchers and hitting lineups to help get wagers to the window. As always, check the Action App for my latest MLB bets.
Find all MLB umpire assignments and betting records here.
Umpire Betting Trends
Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers
Umpire: D.J. Reyburn
- Home Record: 130-122, 51.6% (-12.80 units)
- Under Record: 130-113, 53.5% (12.28 units)
- Total: 9
- Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
- Projected Wind: Roof Closed or Inward from Left Field 15 mph
In his short career, D.J. Reyburn’s had a tendency for the under. MLB games with the young umpire behind the dish have a strikeout rate of 21.1% and a “Strikeout Boost” of 20% over the average baseball game.
Per BetLabs, Reyburn is 14-2 to the under on Wednesdays and Sundays when typical getaway games occur. If you’re wondering how big his strike zone is, Bryce Harper has painted a picture in the past.
(Warning: Contains Explicative)
Reliever-to-converted-starter Brandon Woodruff gets the nod for the Brewers. Control has been the issue for Woodruff thus far in 2019, but a K/9 rate over 11 should pay off against the Nationals. Washington hitters are 7th in strikeout percentage against righties at 25.8% with a wOBA of just .306.
While rain may hold off in the forecast, wind blowing in against righty pull hitters at 15 mph would help. With temperatures around 45 degrees, it is possible the Miller Park Roof will be closed. No matter, as our getaway game umpire of D.J. Reyburn and the potential strikeouts should get an under home.
Blue Bet: Under 9
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
Umpire: Ryan Blakney
- Home Team Record: 55-66, 45.5% (-21.79 units)
- Away Team Record: 66-55, 54.5% (22.99 units)
- Total: 10
- Time: 8:40 p.m. EST
- Projected Wind: Straight inward from Center, 15 mph
Umpire rotations have trends not just for totals, but also for sides. Ryan Blakney has frequently cashed for the visiting team while also calling more games under the total. A cold Wednesday night will have plenty of wind coming in from centerfield, different from Tuesday night’s game. This may temper a Giants team that had no issues putting runs on the board in downtown Denver.
— San Francisco Giants (@SFGiants) May 8, 2019
Jon Gray is the Rockies pitcher to fade in this contest, with wOBA of .386 against lefties. Half of the projected Giants hitters are lefties and have the splits in their favor.
Derek Holland toes the rubber against the Rockies offense. Colorado’s wRC+ of 73 ranks 25th in the league. With an umpire that favors road teams, expect the San Francisco Giants to keep up their hot hitting enough to cash this ticket.
Blue Bet: Giants +140