MLB Daily Strikeout Leader Projections | Expert Bets for MLB Player Props (Tuesday, May 21)

MLB Daily Strikeout Leader Projections | Expert Bets for MLB Player Props (Tuesday, May 21) article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Zack Littell, Charlie Morton, Jon Gray

A prop market that has grown in popularity and offered at FanDuel is the daily strikeout leader. The sportsbook lists odds for every starting pitcher on a given day and you can bet on who will finish with the most strikeouts on the slate.

Keep in mind, much like sports such as golf with leaderboards, dead-heat rules do apply. So if a pitcher you bet on ties with another pitcher, your odds are cut in half.

For today's slate, Yankees right-hander Clarke Schmidt is the favorite at +800 as he takes on the Mariners. Right behind him are a couple of southpaws who are squaring off with one another: Toronto's Yusei Kikuchi and Chicago's Garrett Crochet, both at +850.

The only other starting pitcher on today's slate with odds shorter than +1500 is Minnesota's Joe Ryan, who is +1100 against the Nationals.

My value plays in this market can be found further down the odds board, however, including Tampa Bay's Zack Littell (+2200), Texas's Jon Gray (+1500) and Atlanta's Charlie Morton (+1900).

We'll start with Littell as he gets set to face the Red Sox. His three main pitches all have whiff rates of 25% or better. His split-finger is excellent and has a 35% whiff rate, but only has a put-away rate of 14%.

I expect his put-away rate to be nearly 10% higher with that split-finger, so he could have a breakout 8+ strikeout game soon.

The Red Sox also should have a fairly strikeout-friendly lineup, and this is the kind of slate where 8-10 strikeouts could take down this market, which brings a pitcher like Littell into play.

Gray and the Rangers will face the red-hot Philadelphia Phillies, and the veteran right-hander has been solid this year. He throws his slider 45% of the time and it has a 35% whiff rate.

The Phillies have a handful of hitters he should be able to K around 30% of the time, so I like his upside today.

For Morton and the Braves, my model does show value; however, it's worth noting that he's facing a Cubs team that is tough to strikeout and the weather at Wrigley Field will have winds blowing out to left field at 25+ mph.

Below, you can find my projections for the daily strikeout leader today, Tuesday, May 21st.

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.