Home Run Prop Picks, Odds: Dinger Tuesday Bets for Cody Bellinger, Ryan McMahon, Jordan Westburg (April 23)
(Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) Pictured: Jordan Westburg
One of the most popular promotions in the sports betting community is back: MLB Dinger Tuesday from FanDuel.
The promotion allows a user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether the player you bet on homers, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25 for the game.
Many users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum $25 back in free bets — essentially five free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were higher limits, usually $50, on the return in free bets for players.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2023 was 2.20, you will receive an average of $12 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run "yes" prop.
If you aren't limited, you should play as many games as you’re comfortable with because the promo is still plus-EV for most of the board. If you are limited to the max return of $25, an average of two-to-three games will return your $25 maximum in free bets.
Note: It could take just one game to reach the $25 ceiling if there are five homers in that game.
Here are my three favorite MLB home run bets for Dinger Tuesday on April 23.
Bellinger's early season batted-ball profile features a ton of fly balls, which will play tonight at Wrigley Field with forecasted winds of 10-15 mph out to right field. Those are excellent conditions for offense, and Bellinger gets a matchup against Houston starter J.P. France, who has seen a spike in his fly balls allowed (up to 49.3% this season from 37.4% last season).
The public projection systems all see France between 1.3-1.4 HR/9 allowed, but an increase in fly ball rate will spike his home run numbers. Bellinger hasn't had an incredible start to 2024, but his underlying profile suggests he's hitting the ball marginally harder. When you combine that with more fly balls, Bellinger will have a lower average, but slug more this season if he continues at this pace. As a result, he's an excellent Dinger Tuesday pick.
McMahon has the highest barrel rate of his career in the early season sample of 2024 batted balls, and that's immediately after setting his full-season career high in 2023 (11.4%). McMahon has some positive home run regression coming when you compare his early season fly-ball-to-home-run rate to past years.
Just 13.3% of his fly balls have left the park this season, which is considerably lower than his career average (18.8%). Meanwhile, Michael King's move to becoming a full-time starter has led to a considerable decline in fastball velocity and his allowed home-run rates have increased as a result. Nolan Jones has the most power upside on the Rockies, but is in the midst of an 0-for-25 stretch.
Westburg has seen an increase in his swing and miss this year, but the reward of a massive power outburst has made the trade-off more than worth it. Westburg ranks in the top-five percentile in average exit velocity, xSLG and hard-hit rate. He's combined that with a 13% barrel rate. He's done most of his damage against fastballs, where he is slugging .698.
He'll matchup against Angels starter Griffin Canning, who has had consistent homer issues throughout his time in the Majors. Canning has allowed 1.6 HR/9 in his MLB career, and his decline in stuff across the board will lead to more homer problems in the future. He's allowed five homers (two per 9) already in 2024. Canning has just a 67 Stuff+ on the fastball, which ranks among the worst of MLB starters. His overall Stuff+ has fallen from 96 last year to 84 this year.
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