MLB Home Run Bets: Dinger Tuesday Picks for Mike Trout, Francisco Lindor, Triston Casas (April 16)
Photo by Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Francisco Lindor.
One of the most popular promotions in the sports betting community is back: MLB Dinger Tuesday from FanDuel.
The promotion allows a user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether the player you bet on homers, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25 for the game.
Many users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum $25 back in free bets — essentially five free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were higher limits, usually $50, on the return in free bets for players.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2023 was 2.20, you will receive an average of $12 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run "yes" prop.
If you are not limited at all, you should play as many games as you’re comfortable with because the promo is still plus-EV for most of the board. If you are limited to the max return of $25, an average of 2-3 games will return your $25 maximum free bets.
Note: It could be just one game to reach the $25 ceiling if there are five homers in that game.
Here are my three favorite MLB home run bets for Dinger Tuesday on April 16.
Check out the new-user FanDuel promo code offer before placing your MLB home run bets!
Angels vs. Rays
Aaron Civale's HR/9 rate has spiked since arriving to Tampa Bay, in large part because he's throwing elevated pitches more in the zone. Civale's strikeout rate spiked last year, but the Rays righty is seeing a career-low swinging strike rate and a career-high zone contact rate allowed. I think Civale will have a home run problem as the year progresses.
Mike Trout is selling out for fly-ball power thus far with a 55% fly-ball rate and a 42% pull rate. All of this is a recipe for the Angels' slugger to continue to hit homers.
Pirates vs. Mets
Francisco Lindor is off to a poor start in 2024 with a .152/.260/.227 slash line through 77 plate appearances. The Mets shortstop has just three extra-base hits, but the underlying metrics suggest that Lindor has been quite unlucky.
He gets a matchup with Pittsburgh's flame-throwing rookie Jared Jones, who loves to fill up the zone with middle-middle, high-velocity fastballs. Jones has an elite fastball, but his locations on it still leave it vulnerable to the long ball. His early shine is built on an incredible 37% strikeout rate, but the homers will persist as a problem for him given the arsenal and pitch locations.
Lindor's xSLG on four seamers has been consistently great since he got to New York: .502 in 2022, .480 in 2023, .630 in 2024. The results haven't come yet, but the underlying process remains fine for Lindor and this is a great boom-or-bust matchup for him to find some power.
Guardians vs. Red Sox
Triston Casas' plate discipline has shined in the early portion of his MLB career, and he's really grown into his power in the second half of 2023 and early stages of 2024.
Tanner Bibee's fastball grades out poorly by Stuff+ and run value metrics, and his command of the pitch is quite mediocre. As a result, Bibee was never going to sustain the 0.8 HR/9 he allowed as a rookie.
Bibee has eight walks in 13 2/3 innings and has made two starts against the White Sox and Athletics. Now facing a better offense in the Red Sox, a renewed focus on finding the zone will lead to his stuff over the plate being very hittable.
Casas has a double-digit barrel rate early this season after a 13% barrel rate last year. He had a .607 xSLG on fastballs last year.
His +560 price at FanDuel is considerably better than comparable books DraftKings and BetMGM. Casas has 30-plus HR upside in a full season and is too long against a league-average pitcher like Bibee.
Honorable mentions:C.J. Abrams (+600) is pulling more balls and displaying improved power for Washington, while Julio Rodriguez (+470) is at his ultimate floor of a price following a horrid start to the season. Now he faces homer-prone Hunter Greene.
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