We have an 11-game slate on Monday, with plenty of great spots to pick from. As always, I'm bringing you some bangers for today's MLB action.
Read on for my 5 MLB Home Run Picks Today.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:05 PM | |
| 7:10 PM | |
| 8:05 PM | |
| 8:10 PM | |
| 8:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Orioles vs. Rays MLB Home Run Picks
This spot is below average, but these odds still aren't low enough.
Shane McClanahan has been great at suppressing righty power this season, allowing a low 0.60 HR/9, but with a low 6.3% fly-ball rate, he's due for some heavy regression.
This ballpark is well below average for HRs, but I have the true odds here around +400, making this a great bet.
Pick: Pete Alonso Home Run (+390)
Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox MLB Home Run Picks
This isn't a great spot, but it's far better than the odds imply. Alec Gamboa is going to be the opener with Brayan Bello coming in for long relief.
Gamboa is a below-average matchup, but Bello, despite being in better form recently, has been a plus matchup for lefty power.
This ballpark isn't great for power, but with all of these factors considered, I have the true odds here around +525, making this a great bet.
Pick: Ketel Marte Home Run (+600)
White Sox vs. Cubs MLB Home Run Picks
Vargas gets a great spot, and these odds are far too high.
Shota Imanaga is a gas can for righty power, as he has allowed a 1.66 HR/9 this season and a 1.75 HR/9 in his career. The ballpark and weather are mediocre, which makes these odds far too high.
I have the true odds around +320, making this a great bet.
Pick: Miguel Vargas Home Run (+360)
White Sox vs. Cubs MLB Home Run Picks
These odds are a bit too high given the spot.
Luis Castillo isn't the same pitcher he used to be and is a complete gas can for lefty power at this point in his career (1.86 HR/9 this season).
The ballpark and weather are average, but PCA is one of the best HR hitters in the league. I have the true odds here under +300, making this a great bet.
Pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run (+375)
Dodgers vs. Rockies MLB Home Run Picks
These odds are far too high given the spot.
Tomoyuki Sugano has been a complete gas can for lefty power this season and in his career, giving up a 2.52 HR/9 this season and 2.13 HR/9 last season. This ballpark is one of the best in the majors for power, and the weather should be good for hitting, with temps in the mid-80s.
Freeman isn't the same power hitter he used to be, but he still has decent pop. I have the true odds here under +400, making this a great bet.
Pick: Freddie Freeman Home Run (+475)
