Our regular 15-game slate on Wednesday offers plenty of bangers for today's MLB action, starting with a few afternoon matchups.
Read on for my 5 MLB Home Run Picks Today.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
In the table below, you'll find each of Grant Neiffer's top home run prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:05 PM | |
  | 3:40 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 7:07 PM | |
  | 10:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rays vs Athletics Prediction, Pick
This is mostly a price play. The matchup vs. Drew Rasmussen is around average for lefty power.
Rays starter Drew Rasmussen has been good this season, but Tyler Soderstrom is a good home-run hitter. Also, this ballpark is one of the best in the league for power, and the weather should be a plus for hitting.
I have the true odds for the Athletics LF at around +400.
Pick: Tyler Soderstrom Home Run
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Rockies vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Pick
I have no idea why these odds are so high, but I'm not going to argue.
This ballpark is a big downgrade for Hunter Goodman, but he is far too good of a hitter to be priced this high in this spot.
Diamondbacks SP Merrill Kelly is not a good pitcher at this point in his career, and he's been a plus matchup for righty power this season (1.44 HR/9).
I have the true odds for the Rockies C at around +350.
Pick: Hunter Goodman Home Run
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Brewers vs Padres Prediction, Pick
This is a plus spot, and Jackson Chourio is not priced like it.
Padres starter Robbie Ray has been a plus matchup for righty power this season, allowing a 1.42 HR/9 despite playing in the best pitcher's park in the league (San Francisco) for most of the season.
Chourio is an above-average power hitter, and I have the true odds for the Brewers LF under +400.
Pick: Jackson Chourio Home Run
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Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction, Pick
This is a price play for Wilyer Abreu.
Blue Jays SP Jose Soriano has allowed an above-average 1.30 HR/9 to lefties this season, but he's due for some positive regression and grades out as a negative matchup for lefty power.
This ballpark is a big upgrade for Abreu and a top-10 ballpark for lefty power.
Abreu has been in good form over the last month, and I have the true odds for the Red Sox RF under +500.
Pick: Wilyer Abreu Home Run
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Royals vs Dodgers Prediction, Pick
I don't generally bet on Shohei Ohtani, but this spot is great.
Royals starter Daniel Lynch is going to open the game, but Mason Black is likely going to come in for long relief, and he's a great matchup for lefty power.
We don't have a huge sample size of Black in the majors, but he's been hammered by lefty power (career 2.12 HR/9) and grades out as a great matchup for lefty power.
I have the true odds for the Dodgers slugger at around +250.
Pick: Shohei Ohtani Home Run
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