MLB Home Run Props Today | Byron Buxton, Kyle Schwarber, Fernando Tatis Jr (Friday, June 23)
Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Schwarber, Fernando Tatis Jr., Byron Buxton
Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant. One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runsprops.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home runprops can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I normally give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run. But today will be different.
The odds across the board in games where I expect a higher-scoring atmosphere have juiced total bases odds — as expected. I wasn't able to find three total bases props I loved. So instead, I will be throwing .25u on three separate players to hit a HR.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly! So don't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +6027 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
It took Byron Buxton some time to get comfortable after missing two weeks with a rib contusion, but in his last three games something has clicked. The slugger has three home runs and a double, including a pair of 465+ foot home runs Thursday afternoon.
You know we had to give @OfficialBuck103's homers the Statcast™️ treatment. 💪
— MLB (@MLB) June 22, 2023
Despite his struggles at the plate this season — a .215 average and what was a .715 OPS prior to this three-game stretch — I love the idea of continuing to back the hot hand on Friday night.
Buxton is one of the most interesting players in MLB. He ranks in the bottom 6% of all hitters in xBA (.212) but is in the top 3% in max exit velocity. His barrel rate sits at 13.1% and he’s so fast that a single can quickly turn into a double.
He has largely struggled against left-handed pitching this season, with just a .143 average in 49 at-bats. But of his seven hits, two have left the park and another two went for extra bases. Those struggles should be nothing more than a fluke.
Last season, Buxton hit .252 against left-handed pitching with a .917 OPS. He had 10 home runs and 58% of his hits went for extra bases. Buxton swings for the fences and carries all the power in the world — it’s just a matter of putting it all together.
He draws a strong matchup against Joey Wentz on Friday. The left-hander ranks in the bottom 10% in xSLG (.500) and has given up a double-digit barrel rate (10.7%) to the opposition. He often relies on pitching to contact and struggles to generate chases.
As a whole, Wentz has been crushed. He’s given up a home run in eight of his 14 appearances (57%) and 2+ in three.
Buxton is boom or bust right now but carries as much power as anybody in baseball. He is +360 to homer at bet365.
Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies
Another boom-or-bust player, Kyle Schwarber looks to rebound from a horrid Thursday when he went hitless and made a key mistake in extras that eventually led to the Phillies' demise.
Hitting leadoff for the Phillies, Schwarber often sees five at-bats a game. He has a propensity for hitting leadoff home runs and packs a punch with every swing. He’s inside the top 10% of all hitters in barrel rate and top 15% in both average and max exit velocity.
Schwarber had a horrible May but has bounced back nicely in June. He’s slowly inching toward the Mendoza line and has hit seven home runs in 77 at-bats. His OPS is .927 in June, a huge jump from the previous two months (.786 in April and .668 in May).
The wind has flipped at Citizens Bank Park on Friday night, making it a more hitter-friendly environment. The Mets throw out Kodai Senga, who has shown command issues all season long. His walk rate (13.4%) does provide cause for concern with a hitter like Schwarber who has a great eye (16.4 BB%), but it has also led to Senga grooving pitches and being hit hard at times.
After a strong May where he gave up just one home run, Senga has given up three long balls in his last three starts. He ranks in the bottom 25% of all pitchers in hard-hit rate, too.
Given the probability of him seeing five at-bats and his recent success in the month of June, I love taking a stab at Schwarber with the wind blowing out at Citizens Bank Park. He is +265 to hit a HR at bet365.
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
Nationals vs. Padres, 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin (LHP)
Hello there, Mr. Corbin.
Corbin is auto-fade material, especially when it comes to props. The left-hander has an xERA of 6.1, and despite shoring up on his barrel% (8.3) from a season ago, we have seen him take yet another step backward when it comes to xBA, hard-hit%, strikeout rate and more.
Despite that improvement in barrel rate, Corbin’s HR/9 remains 1.38. He has given up at least one HR in nine of his 15 starts (60%) and multiple in four of them (27%). His line drive rate has risen a few percentage points from last season, too.
Enter Fernando Tatis Jr. who has settled in nicely despite returning to baseball for the first time since 2021. While his barrel% is down to 10.1% — still above average — he ranks inside the top 5% of all hitters in xBA and xSLG.
The talk all season long has been the slow start of San Diego’s bats. Tatis has been instrumental atop the lineup in generating offense and scoring opportunities. Over the last 20+ games, we’ve seen a huge change for the positive in both Tatis’ wOBA and hard-hit%.
What’s been most impressive to me has been Tatis’ improvements strikeout-wise. Though his chase rate remains high, Tatis is not whiffing on as many pitches and has decreased his K% nearly 10 percent from 2021.
That step forward is especially key in the prop market. He is about league average in walk rate while his xBA has risen to .307.
To say Tatis crushes left-handed pitching is an understatement. He has a 203 wRC+ and .404 ISO, while 69% of his hits have gone for extra bases. After back-to-back hitless games and in a prime matchup with Corbin, I love Tatis bouncing back at Petco Park on Friday night.
He is +270 to homer at bet365.
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Friday, June 23
- Byron Buxton (+360)
- Kyle Schwarber (+265)
- Fernando Tatis Jr (+270)