MLB NRFI Picks: Tonight’s Model Predictions
Credit: Getty Images. Pictured: Gunnar Henderson.
We went 2-2 on Monday, but with one of the losses coming on a half-unit bet, we still managed to turn a slight profit.
With every team in action on Tuesday, we have a big betting card, with six YRFI/NRFI picks starting with game one of the Tigers vs. Cardinals doubleheader.
MLB NRFI Picks: Tonight's Model Predictions
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Gibson vs. Jack Flaherty
I'm surprised to get the YRFI at this price, considering the moderate total in Game 1 of the Cardinals vs. Tigers doubleheader.
Detroit's elite bullpen (2.71 ERA) means runs are likelier to come against the starters, and Jack Flaherty has a 7.71 ERA his first time through the order this season.
On the Detroit side, they have three borderline-elite hitters among their first four in the lineup but not much else after, which translates to a large percentage of runs coming from the top of their lineup, who conveniently all get to bat in the first inning.
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Starting Pitchers: Nestor Cortes vs. Dean Kremer
We have a nine-run total in Baltimore tonight, and we have two pitchers who've historically been worse early in games than overall.
More importantly, the top of both lineups is absolutely stacked.
We hit the YRFI on these teams last night, and I anticipate riding it out through most of the series, depending on the pitching matchups and game totals.
Starting Pitchers: Cole Ragans vs. Jose Berrios
This is an excellent price considering the total of 7.5 to 8, with two solid starting pitchers.
Berrios won't have a 1.23 ERA all season, but it's still a great sign.
As is the struggles at the top of Toronto's lineup this year. All of their projected first three hitters have underperformed this season.
Starting Pitchers: Jon Gray vs. MacKenzie Gore
Both Jon Gray and MacKenzie Gore are due for some serious regression.
Gray has an ERA of 2.92 on the season but an expected ERA (xERA) over 5.00. Gore's splits aren't quite as extreme, but his 3.94 xERA is well above his 3.12 actual mark.
More importantly, Gore is a slow starter. His first-time through-the-order ERA is 5.79 this season.
As such, I have the bulk of the value on the Rangers side, so if you can't get the YRFI at the listed price, the Rangers team-only line or first-inning moneyline is another option.
Starting Pitchers: Nick Martinez vs. Yu Darvish
I have some slight concerns about Darvish, as historically, he's been a bit of a slow starter.
However, this year, his first time through the order, ERA is an excellent 1.59.
We're also getting a great price considering the 7.5-run total, and the Padres projected lineup with their best hitters in the middle rather than up top.
Starting Pitchers: Mitch Keller vs. Alex Wood
This game has a 7.5-run implied total, two bad offenses, and two pitchers who've been better than their poor starts have indicated.
We're banking on positive regression for both starters today, but both are due.
The fact that this game has such a low total implies that oddsmakers expect some of that regression to hit tonight.
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