MLB NRFI Picks: Wednesday Model Predictions

MLB NRFI picks on Tuesday worked out nicely, with a 3-1 record for a solid two units of profit. That brings the season-long record to 51-34 with roughly an 18% ROI through just under a month.

We have three more picks on Wednesday's slate, including two for the afternoon games.

Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty vs. Shawn Armstrong

This one requires a bit of guesswork, as Armstrong is typically used as an opener. That means I don't have great data on how he performs early in games relative to his overall numbers.

However, logic would dictate using an opener — who can empty the tank over an inning or two — should help the NRFI. Plus, Flaherty has been solid to start games in recent years, and these are two below-average offenses.

Starting Pitchers: Sean Manaea vs. Blake Snell

Sean Manaea and Blake Snell have both gotten off to rough starts in 2024 but are clearly better pitchers than their early numbers indicate. Both have elevated ERAs relative to their ERA indicators, and more importantly, both have sub-3.00 xFIP numbers their first time through the order.

Add to that a 7.5-run total, and we have a solid NRFI setup.

Be sure to click over to the "Innings" tab on Caesars for this bet, where the price is inexplicably much better on "0 first inning runs" than it is on "no runs first inning" under the "Popular" tab.

Starting Pitchers: Dean Kremer vs. Tyler Anderson

Tyler Anderson has a sub-2.00 ERA this season, but all of his ERA indicators are at least twice that, with xFIP and SIERA numbers over 5.00.

Meanwhile, Dean Kremer has historically been worse early in games than overall.

Combine that with a nine-run total and two "top-heavy" offenses, and we have a solid YRFI setup — especially considering Anthony Rendon's injury means we get Mike Trout leading off for the Angels.