Phillies vs Reds Odds, Prediction: Expect a Solid Pitching Performance
Via Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Spencer Turnbull #22 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a pitch in the top of the first inning against the Chicago White Sox at Citizens Bank Park on April 19, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+135 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -165 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-160 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +140 |
Phillies vs Reds odds have the Reds installed as -160 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under of 8.5 or 9 depending on the book. For my Phillies vs Reds pick, I will be looking at the total.
Phillies vs Reds on Wednesday features two former high draft picks as Spencer Turnbull takes the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies, and Nick Lodolo gets the ball for the Cincinnati Reds.
Let's dive into the Phillies vs. Reds odds and make a pick in our MLB betting preview for Wednesday, April 24.
Turnbull has gotten off to a tremendous start in 2024, posting a 2-0 record with a 1.23 ERA and 0.77 WHIP through his first four starts. There were eight or fewer total runs scored in three of those four outings.
Based on his underlying metrics, regression shouldn't be too much of a concern as the right-hander ranks in the 71st percentile or higher in xERA, xBA and Average Exit Velocity. This success could continue against Cincinnati, a team he is 2-0 against through three career meetings with a commanding 1.69 ERA.
Following Turnbull is a bullpen that is due for positive regression. Despite this relief staff ranking last in the league in ERA, they rank ninth in FIP and 10th in xFIP.
Finally, there have been eight or fewer total runs scored in 14 of the Phillies' past 19 games.
Speaking of trends, there have also been eight or fewer total runs scored in five of Cincinnati's past seven games, a trend likely to continue with the left-hander Lodolo slated to take the mound. The former first-round pick has looked outstanding thus far, posting a 2-0 record with a 0.75 ERA and 0.75 WHIP through his first two starts.
There were eight or fewer total runs scored in each of those two outings. Like Turnbull, Lodolo's strong numbers aren't likely to regress as the southpaw ranks in the 76th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA and Barrel Rate.
Also like Turnbull, Lodolo possesses a tremendous track record against tonight's opponent with a 1-0 record and 2.22 ERA through four career meetings. There were eight or fewer total runs scored in three of those four meetings.
However, Lodolo may not get a ton of run support in this matchup as the Reds rank in the bottom half of the league in hits per game, BA, OBP and OPS.
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Phillies vs Reds
Betting Pick & Prediction
Those hitting woes could continue against Turnbull, a pitcher whom this current Reds lineup owns a fade-worthy .143 BA, .238 SLG and .165 wOBA against through 21 career plate appearances. On the other hand, Philadelphia's .258 BA, .394 SLG and .319 wOBA through 74 career plate appearances against Lodolo is nothing crazy either.
These two pitchers are throwing well to start the campaign, and their track records against their opponents suggest more of the same on Wednesday. Weather should also be a nonfactor as the forecast calls for a mild and clear night.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100 · Play to -105)
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