MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks, Odds Sunday: Model Predictions (4/21)

MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks, Odds Sunday: Model Predictions (4/21) article feature image

Via Brandon Sloter/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Musgrove #44 of the San Diego Padres throws to the plate in the first inning during a game against the Chicago Cubs at PETCO Park on April 9, 2024 in San Diego, California.

We've hit a cold streak after going 0-3 yesterday to bring the season record down to 45-32 on our NRFI/YRFI picks. There were certainly some bad breaks involved — looking at you, Braves — and variance will swing our way again at some point. Let's hope it's today, as we're back at it with three more picks on Sunday.

Sunday, April 21
1:40 p.m. ET
NRFI -120 (Bet to -130)

Starting Pitchers: Ross Stripling vs. Tanner Bibee

This game has a 7.5-run total that most books have juiced slightly to the under, making it an excellent NRFI candidate. Guardians starter Tanner Bibee has less than ideal splits the first time through the order, but he's taking on the poor A's offense. Cleveland is better offensively, but Ross Stripling is very solid early in games, so it balances out in our favor both ways.

Sunday, April 21
2:15 p.m. ET
NRFI -130 (Bet to -135)

Starting Pitchers: Colin Rea vs. Sonny Gray

This is another game with a 7.5-run total juiced to the under. Like the game above, the pitcher with worse early game splits (Colin Rea) has an easier matchup, and the better offense on paper (Brewers) is without one of its two best hitters in Christian Yelich.

Sunday, April 21
4:10 p.m. ET
NRFI -105 (Bet to -130)

Starting Pitchers: Chris Bassitt vs. Joe Musgrove

While these are two top-10 offenses, this pick is all about the pitchers. Both starters had xFIP numbers the first time through the order right around 3.00 last season, which is considerably better than their full-game numbers. Musgrove has struggled a bit to start the new season, but that seems to be mostly bad luck. His BABIP against is .397 this season, and his Swinging Strike Rate is higher than last year, so he's due for some positive regression anyway.

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