A heat wave is sweeping across most of the country, resulting in numerous high totals and robust YRFI projections today.
I've got three picks, all YRFIs, on what's hopefully a high-scoring Monday slate of baseball.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI picks and model predictions for Monday.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks and Predictions — June 23, 2025
Mariners vs. Twins NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Bryan Woo vs. Bailey Ober
As much as I like Mariners NRFIs when they're at home, we typically look the other way when they're on the road.
That's due to T-Mobile Park being the worst hitter's park in baseball by a wide margin, cutting runs 10% more than the next closest stadium.
This is evident in the Home/Road splits for Bryan Woo — he has a 2.08 ERA in Seattle that jumps to 3.93 when playing anywhere else.
Seattle features a top-five overall offense and powerful bats at the top, which makes this a solid YRFI spot against Baily Ober, who has mid-fours marks in both ERA and xFIP his first time through the order.
This is also one of the weather spots I mentioned above, with a 13% boost to scoring according to Weather Edge.
Cubs vs. Cardinals NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Ben Brown vs. Matthew Liberatore
Much of my projection in this one comes down to the splits on Chicago's Ben Brown.
He had a 2.08 ERA when coming out of the bullpen this season, but, as a starter, it's been an ugly 6.03. That jumps even further to 6.39 his first time through the order.
He's taking on a formidable Cardinals lineup at the top, featuring two hitters with wRC+ marks of 130 or higher.
This game also features a weather report that is expected to boost scoring by nearly 20%.
Plus, the other side is the Cubs.
They're a top-five overall offense in baseball, with roughly neutral platoon splits against the left-handed Liberatore. Liberatore is the better pitcher here — both overall and early — but the Cubs are good enough to get to nearly any starter.
Red Sox vs. Angels NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Walker Buehler vs. Jack Kochanowicz
Unlike the other games on today's card, this one has nothing to do with the weather or park conditions — both of which are about neutral — and everything to do with the starting pitchers.
Both Buehler and Kochanowicz have overall ERAs over 5.00 on the season, and neither has solid early-game splits.
Boston trading away Rafael Devers doesn't help their offense, but we still have reasonably strong hitters in both lineups, especially with Mike Trout working his way back into form after missing most of May.
