The week started on a strong note, as I went 2-0 yesterday with yet another Paul Skenes NRFI coming through.
Let's try to keep it going with two more picks on Tuesday.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — July 22, 2025
Padres vs. Marlins NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Stephen Kolek vs. Edward Cabrera
The starting pitchers primarily drive the projection in this one. While neither of them has great overall numbers, Kolek's first-time-through-the-order ERA and xFIP are both a bit below his full-game marks.
Cabrera has even more noteworthy splits, with a 2.78 ERA his first time through the order, nearly a full run lower than his overall mark.
Surprisingly, the Marlins have a higher wRC+ (103) against righties than the Padres (100) on the season, though their better hitters are in the middle of the lineup and not guaranteed first-inning at-bats.
San Diego's lineup is more top-heavy and thus presents a higher risk, but I'm still showing a pretty solid value relative to the line on Caesars.
White Sox vs. Rays NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Davis Martin vs. Drew Rasmussen
Both pitchers in this contest are due for some regression.
Davis Martin, in particular, comes into this game with a 3.79 ERA but a 5.48 xERA through 13 starts, despite not pitching in a particularly pitcher-friendly park.
That suggests he's just been lucky, although the difference between his home games in Chicago and tonight in Tampa is about 10% of a boost to offense in terms of Park Factor.
Drew Rasmussen has less extreme splits, but his underlying numbers are about a run worse than his actual ERA, and his first-time-through-the-order ERA is higher than his overall mark.
That combined with an 8.5-run total is enough for an even-money YRFI, especially with the Rays' top-heavy lineup.
