Saturday MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: 3 Best Bets, Featuring Rockies vs. Braves, Royals vs. Astros
Brett Davis/Getty Images. Pictured: Dansby Swanson.
- There's plenty of betting value across the MLB board on Saturday.
- We see betting value in three games, including Giants vs. Marlins, Astros vs. Royals and Braves vs. Rockies.
- Check out all three of our top MLB bets for Saturday below.
With day games and night games across the board, Saturdays are always fun in MLB.
Today, however, we turn our attention to the afternoon first. We see betting value on three games tonight, including Giants vs. Marlins and Astros vs. Royals at 4:10 p.m. ET before traveling to Denver for Braves vs. Rockies at 9:10 p.m. ET.
Be sure to check out all three of our best bets below, plus the rest of our MLB coverage for Saturday's slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Giants vs. Marlins
DJ James: In the last month, the Miami Marlins have been one of the best hitting teams against right-handed pitching in the entire big leagues. They rank fifth in wRC+ and own a team OBP of .330 with an OPS of .776.
Pablo López will pitch for take the mound against Logan Webb and the San Francisco Giants. These pitchers are both great, but López has been sharper this season with a 1.83 ERA and 2.98 xERA. Now, that xERA tells that he has been getting a little bit lucky, but even 2.98 is strong.
Webb comes in at 3.52 and 3.34, respectively, but his peripherals are not nearly as encouraging as López’s. He ranks in the 39th percentile in hard-hit percentage and is striking out only 20% of hitters. This number is down 6% since last season.
The Giants' bullpen has also been atrocious in the past month with a 6.34 collective ERA and 4.58 xFIP. That xFIP ranks third-to-last in the MLB, only ahead of Kansas City and Oakland. That's not encouraging against a team that's hitting like this Miami team is at this point in the season.
Even though Webb can pitch deep into a game, he has given up a few runs here and there in the last month. Take the Marlins at +100, and play them to -120.
Astros vs. Royals
Jules Posner: Luis Garcia takes the mound for the Houston Astros against the Kansas City Royals Saturday evening.
Over the season, Garcia's stronger split in terms of runs allowed has been on the road, but he's also averaging 9 K/9 over 25 road innings. So far this season, Garcia is averaging five Ks per appearance on the road, but if you drop his one-strikeout road performance in his first start of the season, he's right at 6 Ks per appearance.
Additionally, over those four starts, he's cleared 4.5 Ks three times, including a nine-punchout performance in Minnesota.
The Royals' offense has been performing better of late, but they're still second in the AL in K% over the past few weeks against RHP at home. Their 26.9 K% means that 4.5 might actually be a low threshold considering their tendency to strike out and Garcia's ability to rack up Ks on the road.
Also, Garcia's total is in plus money presently around +105, which seems like a great value for someone who pitches his best on the road. While the Royals aren't having much of an issue creating scoring opportunities, their aggressiveness at the plate has resulted in a spike in strikeouts over the past few weeks.
As long as Garcia's strikeout total stays at 4.5 and in plus-money territory, the over seems like a good play.
Braves vs. Rockies
Charlie DiSturco: This is an interesting game, mostly because it’s at Coors Field. I think the Braves hold the obvious advantage and are priced as relatively-heavy favorites because of it.
While the Braves have had a sluggish start to the season offensively, there’s one area where they’ve excelled: hitting left-handers.
The splits are night and day. The Braves slash .259/.338/.459 compared to a .234/.298/.393 drop against right-handers.
They should be able to tee off against Kyle Freeland. Atlanta is arguably the best offense against left-handed pitching and draws Freeland, who has drastic home-road splits.
And while Strider has been solid for Atlanta, he won’t pitch deep into the game and force the Braves to use the bullpen early — especially if the balls are flying around Coors Field.
The Rockies offense has been effective in the early season and hit .280 at home with a .447 slugging percentage. Spencer Strider does give up a decent amount of barrels, which could be a recipe for disaster and the reason why I’m staying away from a side on Saturday night.
Tack on the fact that Colorado has the worst bullpen ERA (5.27) in all of MLB, and I think the total holds some value here.
Back the over in what should be a fun, high-scoring bout to finish off your Saturday night slate.
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