MLB Odds, Picks & Best Bets: Our Top 4 Plays for Monday, Featuring Dodgers vs. Giants & Red Sox vs. Astros (Aug. 1)
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Mookie Betts.
- Monday's MLB slate includes only 10 games, but there's still betting value across the board.
- Our staff sees value in four games, including Red Sox vs. Astros and Dodgers vs. Giants.
- Check out all four of our best MLB bets for Monday below.
Only 20 MLB teams are in action Monday, but there’s plenty of betting value across the 10-game slate.
Our staff sees value in four games: Diamondbacks vs. Guardians, Royals vs. White Sox, Red Sox vs. Astros and Dodgers vs. Giants.
From moneyline and first-five inning bets to player props, our staff has you covered. Check out all of our top picks for Monday below, and be sure to come back tomorrow for even more action.
MLB Odds & Picks
Diamondbacks vs. Guardians
Jules Posner: After taking a huge road series from the Tampa Bay Rays, the Cleveland Guardians return home to open a three-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Cal Quantrill will take the mound for the Guards, and he’s been solid at home. This season, he has posted a 3.19 ERA with a 4.40 FIP and 4.25 xFIP. Considering he’s not a huge strikeout pitcher, these numbers are all pretty solid.
He’ll take on a D-backs offense that has posted a 43 wRC+ against right-handed pitching on road since the All-Star break, which is among the league’s worst.
Zach Davies returns from the IL to make the start for the D-backs. He’s posted a 4.26 ERA, with a 4.44 FIP and a 4.30 xFIP this season. With the exception of ERA, his road numbers are pretty similar to Quantrill’s home numbers.
But JulesyBoy Labs just doesn’t like Davies that much. JulesyBoy Labs loves Quantrill.
He’ll be taking on a testy Guardians offense. Additionally, Josh Naylor should make his return to the lineup, making the Guards offense even more treacherous.
The Guardians’ moneyline opened at -130 and has moved down to -145 or -150 overnight, depending on where you look. This should be the play, but if it goes over -150, the online will be the move. Hey — why not both?
Royals vs. White Sox
Sean Zerillo: Season-long metrics can hide recent dips — or improvements — in performance. Michael Kopech has solid 2022 indicators (3.16 ERA, 3.81 xERA, 4.96 xFIP, 4.85 SIERA). Still, he’s gone through a rough patch in his past six outings (31 2/3 IP, 20 BB, 23 K, 4.55 ERA, 5.72 xFIP)
In his first 12 starts of the season, Kopech’s fastball averaged 95.3 MPH, alongside a 7% barrel rate and a 10.2% swinging strike rate. In his past six outings, Kopech’s fastball has dipped to 94.2 MPH, alongside a 10% barrel rate and an 8.5% swinging strike rate.
Kopech recently surpassed his career-high in innings and may be dealing with some arm fatigue. Regardless of the explanation, however, he’s been a far worse pitcher than he was earlier in the season, and I like the Royals here as underdogs.
I don’t project a massive difference between Kopech (3.91 Model Weighted ERA) and Royals’ starter Brad Keller (3.87 xERA, 4.07 Model Weighted ERA).
Moreover, the White Sox are in their lesser split, as they excel against lefties (122 wRC+, 3rd) but struggle against righties (94 wrC+, 22nd).
I projected Kansas City as +125 underdogs (44.4% implied) for Tuesday’s first five innings (F5) and the whole game. You can bet them in either half down to +135 (42.4% implied), with either wager representing a 2% edge compared to my projection.
Red Sox vs. Astros
Tony Sartori: We have the first matchup of this three-game series as the AL West’s Houston Astros host the AL East’s Boston Red Sox. Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi takes the mound for Boston and could be a solid fade candidate in this matchup.
Through 15 starts this season, Eovaldi is 4-3 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. His metrics align with these stats, as Eovaldi possesses a .320 xwOBA, .256 xBA and .454 xSLG.
Eovaldi has been in particularly poor form recently. Over his last three starts, Eovaldi has gone 0-1 with an 11.08 ERA and 2.08 WHIP.
While this Houston offense should have no problem generating offense, we’re backing one player to score a run: Jose Altuve. Altuve has scored at least one run in each of his last three games and eight of his last 13 (62%).
This success should continue against Boston’s right-hander. Through 33 career plate appearances against Eovaldi, Altuve boasts a .267 BA, .633 SLG and .403 wOBA.
His metrics over this sample size suggest that regression should not occur, as Altuve boasts a .271 xBA, .631 xSLG and .406 xwOBA through those 33 plate appearances. Additionally, Altuve should have another “boost” in this game due to the fact that the Astros are at home.
All trash can jokes aside, Altuve is still a monster at Minute Maid Park, boasting a .325 BA, .397 OBP, .571 SLG and .968 OPS this season. Hitting in front of Alvarez, Bregman and Tucker, someone should be able to hit Altuve in at least once in this contest.
I would play this line up to -120.
Dodgers vs. Giants
Kenny Ducey: It remains to be seen whether or not the Dodgers have truly fixed the issues that have sent Andrew Heaney’s career into a tailspin, but one thing we can say is that he’s yet to crack in four starts this season.
The Giants are also an utterly broken team at the moment.
Brandon Belt looks lost at the plate, Mike Yazstremski’s cooled off, Joey Bart’s yet to hit enough to earn regular at-bats, and the team is dealing with injuries to Thairo Estrada, Brandon Crawford and Joc Pederson.
There simply isn’t enough Major League talent in this order, and the team’s success against lefties this season is largely meaningless due to the fact that there are so many players absent from the lineup at the moment.
That gives me serious doubts about this team’s ability to beat the Dodgers — something it was unable to do in Los Angeles just over a week ago.
Logan Webb’s peripherals are largely fine, but his numbers still can only be considered firmly above-average and not quite elite, given his 3.54 xERA. To make matters worse, the junkballer will meet a team ranked top-five in wRC+ over the last two weeks — and one that’s also eighth against sliders and first against changeups all year long.
L.A. is a little short for my liking.
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