Monday MLB Odds, Best Bets: Our Top 3 Picks, Featuring Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks & Marlins vs. Nationals
Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Madison Bumgarner
- There are 13 games to bet on in Major League Baseball tonight.
- Nationals-Marlins, Brewers-Braves and Diamondbacks-Dodgers have caught the eyes of our MLB analysts in terms of prime betting value.
- Continue reading for the full analysis of our best bets from tonight's MLB slate.
The NBA and NHL playoffs are off, which means Major League Baseball is the only show in town, and there's a robust 13-game slate ready and waiting to be bet on.
Our analysts have pinpointed three of those games that show particular value tonight, including Nationals-Marlins, Braves-Brewers and Diamondbacks-Dodgers.
Here are our three best bets from Monday's MLB slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins
Jules Posner: Sandy Alcantara has not put up his usual home numbers so far this year, but he's still pitched well at home overall. So far in 2022, he's posted a 3.15 ERA, 3.92 FIP and 3.91 xFIP over 20 home innings.
He's also backed by a Marlins offense that has a 126 team wRC++ at home vs. RHP the past two weeks, which is good for seventh best in MLB.
However, the Washington Nationals are the best road offense against RHP in terms of wRC+ over that same time period.
That may be the case, but the Nationals have not faced any top-shelf RH starters over that span, so there is a possibility they regress hard in a big park against one of the better pitchers in the league.
The best pitcher they faced over that time period was Logan Webb of the San Francisco Giants. They managed to score three runs on 11 hits against the Cy Young hopeful, but Webb was in a little bit of a personal slump at the time.
Aaron Sanchez will be on the mound for the Nats and has struggled to get it going this season, especially on the road. He's posted a 8.68 ERA and 5.16 FIP over nine road innings.
The Marlins moneyline is in the -200 range, so the run line is the play here. It opened at +130 and dropped quickly. If you can snag it in plus money, go for it.
Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers
DJ James: The Milwaukee Brewers have been the second-best offense against right-handed pitchers in the month of May. They own a team 139 wRC+ versus a 109 wRC+ for Atlanta.
Ian Anderson has struggled with hard contact this season. His average exit velocity is 90 mph. Peralta’s, on the other hand, is 87.5 mph. Anderson also has trouble putting away hitters. He only ranks in the 21st percentile in strikeouts with a rate of 17.1%. Peralta’s is again better at 30.6%.
The Braves have the sixth-highest strikeout percentage this month, so Peralta should have a field day with this lineup, while Milwaukee's red-hot offense should find success against Anderson, who does not miss bats.
Atlanta has had a more complete bullpen this month at a 3.47 xFIP against 3.65 xFIP for Milwaukee. The Brewers’ bullpen ERA has been nearly two points higher, which only says they are getting extremely unlucky.
Milwaukee is the hotter hitting team with a stronger starting pitcher in this matchup. Peralta should be able to go deeper in this game than Anderson and the bullpens are a wash. Take the Brew Crew to -145.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Collin Whitchurch: Picking and choosing spots to go against the Dodgers and their vaunted offense can be tricky, but a good starting point is generally when they're facing left-handed pitching.
Madison Bumgarner's 1.78 ERA is built on a house of cards, but I like him against a Los Angeles offense that is far less formidable against southpaws. The Dodgers sports a top-five offense against right-handed pitching, but that drops all the way down to 19th against lefties.
They're likely to experience positive regression at some point this season, but they were better against righties a year ago, too, and even with all his late-career warts, Bumgarner has generally been fine against the Dodgers when healthy the last few years.
Tony Gonsolin's path to success is simple: throw strikes. The Diamondbacks have a patient offense if nothing else, but that's essentially the only path to success for an otherwise pedestrian offense. Gonsolin walked just one and struck out five against these Snakes last month, and was only done in by some shoddy defense in the third inning.
The Dodgers generally play good defense, and if Gonsolin is throwing strikes he should be just fine twice through this lineup.
I expect a low scoring game between these two hurlers early, and would play under 4.5 for the first five innings to -115.
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