MLB Odds, Expert Picks: Best Bets From Friday’s Slate, Including Twins vs White Sox, Phillies vs Giants, More (September 2)
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryson Stott and Jean Segura
- A trio of games have caught the eyes of our MLB betting experts.
- Of tonight's 15 games, we're on Nationals vs. Mets, Twins vs. White Sox and Phillies vs. Giants.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of our best bets from tonight in Major League Baseball.
Another weekend in Major League Baseball kicks off with a full slate on Friday night. There are matchups throughout the evening, including some intriguing underdogs and some tough matchups for teams gearing up for a postseason push.
Our analysts are on three of those games with moneyline plays, first five innings and totals. Those games include Nationals vs. Mets, Twins vs. White Sox and Phillies vs. Giants.
Here are our three best bets from Friday's MLB slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Nationals vs. Mets
Jules Posner: The Washington Nationals are heavy underdogs against the Mets and rightfully so. However, Josiah Gray has been a relatively reliable road pitcher this season.
Despite his command issues, his 3.11 road ERA is more than three runs better than his home ERA. Gray's road FIP sits at 5.13 due to his high walk rate, but he has a 4.32 xFIP, which means there's still some potential for positive regression in that department.
The Mets have been a juggernaut this season, but after a hard fought series victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers, they could find themselves in a trap game situation Friday night.
David Peterson takes the mound for the Mets and he has been more vulnerable at home than on the road this season. Although his numbers are respectable across the board, the Nationals have handled LHP well on the road over the past month ranking in the top half of the league in wRC+.
Since the Nats are such big underdogs Friday, their moneylines both have appeal. However, the Nats bullpen has been so unreliable this season that their first five moneyline might be the best value Friday.
Play the F5 moneyline as long as it's above +180.
Twins vs. White Sox
DJ James: Davis Martin had been a nice surprise with potential for a future starting pitcher role on the Chicago White Sox. He will face Sonny Gray and the Minnesota Twins on Friday night.
The White Sox were slightly above average against right-handers in August at 102 wRC+. The Twins came in at 107, so they have a small edge.
However, the discrepancy between Martin and Gray is wide. Gray ranks in the 66th percentile of average exit velocity versus Martin’s 15th percentile. Gray also strikes out hitters at a 24.2% clip, while Martin only strikes out around 17%.
The one hindrance to the Twins racking up many runs is that Jorge Polanco has been nursing an injury and is day-to-day at the moment. Byron Buxton is also on the injury list. Still, they have enough hitters to take advantage of Martin’s issues.
The Twins have a team walk rate of 8.7% against righties on the season. Martin’s walk rate is 8.4%. They will find a way on base and get to the question marks in the Chicago bullpen.
Phillies vs. Giants
Tony Sartori: Over Kyle Gibson's last six starts, he is 4-1 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. We should expect this good form to continue against San Francisco, a team that Gibson has dominated over the last two seasons.
Across his last three starts against the Giants, Gibson boasts a 2.50 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. There have been seven or fewer total runs scored in two of those three outings.
The metrics suggest that we should not expect any regression from Gibson in this matchup. Through 82 career plate appearances against the Phillies' right-hander, this current Giants roster possesses a mere .207 xBA, .292 xSLG and .277 xwOBA.
On the other side, right-hander Alex Cobb enters this game in particularly good form. Over his last six starts, the Giants' right-hander is 1-2 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.
Through 41 career plate appearances against Cobb, this current Phillies lineup possesses a .162 BA, .378 SLG, and .270 wOBA. These are two strong pitchers set to go against teams they have performed well against, making the under an interesting play.
We are getting a fairly generous number due to the fact that the Philadelphia possesses a strong lineup, but Cobb should be able to hold his own. Meanwhile, San Francisco is a bottom-10 lineup in baseball when facing right-handed pitching over the last couple of months.
I would play this line up to (-120).
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