MLB Odds, Expert Picks, Predictions: 4 Bets for Tuesday Night, Including Red Sox vs. Yankees, Mariners vs. Rangers & More (August 17)
Ron Jenkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Charlie Culberson (from left), DJ Peters and Adolis Garcia.
- Our analysts have found plenty of value on Tuesday's MLB slate.
- From Red Sox-Yankees to Angels-Tigers, Brewers-Cardinals and Mariners-Rangers, there's plenty of room for action.
- Continue reading for our staff's best bets from Tuesday's MLB slate.
Tuesday's MLB action starts with a doubleheader between the Red Sox and Yankees, and another 14 games all taking place under the lights.
With so many games on which to wager, our analysts have had no trouble finding value across the board, with picks on Game 2 of the aforementioned doubleheader, as well as Angels vs. Tigers, Brewers vs. Cardinals and Mariners vs. Rangers.
Here are our four best bets from Tuesday's Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Red Sox vs. Yankees (Game 2)
Tanner McGrath: Nathan Eovaldi: Yankee Killer.
Eovaldi must have a grudge against his former club, because he’s tormented them this year. Through four starts against the Yankees this season, Eovaldi has recorded 26 1/3 innings (nearly 6 2/3 per start) while allowing just five total earned runs. More impressive, however, is that he’s struck out 28 Yankees while walking just one.
That’s what Eovaldi has done all season, however. He’s posted such a low FIP (2.77) because he strikes out so many batters (9.07 K/9) while walking so few (1.69) and allowing very few home runs (0.61 HR/9). Eovaldi’s pitching performance this season is a main reason why the Red Sox are overachieving.
Meanwhile, the Yankees send youngster Luis Gil to the mound. Gil’s live fastball (95.4 mph on average) has led him to a very productive first two outings in the big leagues. He tossed six scoreless frames against the Orioles in his MLB debut and followed that up with five scoreless against the Mariners.
However, his .231 BABIP and 3.56 xFIP in those two starts indicate regression, which isn’t unsurprising for a young pitcher. Eventually, Gil will come back down to earth — why not today against the Red Sox?
Meanwhile, Eovaldi’s posted a 2.88 xFIP against the Yankees this season alone. The pitching matchup is between a Yankee Killer and an overvalued youngster creates value on the former, which is why I like the Red Sox in the second game of this twin bill.
Angels vs. Tigers
Brad Cunningham: Dylan Bundy is a big positive regression candidate because his ERA is currently at 6.17, but his xERA is only 4.60 and his xFIP is only 4.64. His main issue has been keeping the ball inside the yard as he has a HR/9 rate of more than 2.
However, he will be facing a Tigers lineup that is below average against right-handed pitching (.301 wOBA, 89 wRC+) and cannot hit sliders (-27.1 run value), which has been Bundy's best pitches this season, allowing a .285 xwOBA and producing over a 36% whiff rate.
Casey Mize is the opposite of Bundy. His ERA is currently sitting at 3.66, but his xERA is about a run and a half higher at 5.17. In fact, Mize has been hit really hard this season, as his hard hit % is all the way up at 41.7%, which is one of the highest rates among qualified starting pitchers this season.
I have the Angels projected at -101 for the first five innings, so I think there is some value on them as +125 underdogs and would play it down to +115.
Brewers vs. Cardinals
Jeff Hicks: I love the pitching matchup, and betting against one of the NL Cy Young favorites and one of the best teams in baseball is difficult to do tonight.
The Milwaukee Brewers are one of the better road teams in baseball and are 23-13 as road favorites this season. Their 101 road wRC+ against right-handed pitching is top 10 in MLB. Burnes has also been better on the road, allowing a slash line against of .208/.239/.284 in road starts.
The Cardinals are four games out of the second wild-card spot and need this series, but at what point is trusting their yearly "voodoo magic" going to burn bettors? The Brewers should break through before the game gets turned over to the bullpen.
Mariners vs. Rangers
Sean Zerillo: I see slight advantages for Seattle almost everywhere in this matchup, without a significant advantage anywhere.
Tyler Anderson (4.30 xERA, 4.44 xFIP, 4.48 SIERA, 14.1% K-BB%) doesn't hold any noticeable edge against Taylor Hearn (4.67 xERA, 4.66 xFIP, 4.40 SIERA, 11.9% K-BB%) aside from command, where Hearn's walk rate is 12.3%, compared to 5.4% for Anderson.
Both teams struggle against left-handed-pitching (90 wRC+ for Seattle, 79 wRC+ for Texas, ranking 26th and 29th, respectively), and I only make the Mariners about a quarter of a run better per game, both offensively and in the bullpen.
Texas has been the better defensive team on the season, ranking ninth with 38 Defensive Runs Saved, compared to 19th with 4 for Seattle. Still, they are churning many Quad-A-type position players through their roster while trying to uncover a hidden gem over the final few months of the season.
The Mariners own a -47 run differential and have outperformed their Pythagorean record (55-64) by nine wins. If the season restarted tomorrow, I would probably make the projection gap between these two teams closer to 10 wins than the 21 that currently separates them in the standings.
I projected the Rangers at 48% for Tuesday, and I would bet their moneyline down to +120.
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