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Saturday MLB Odds & Picks: Diamondbacks First 5 Line Offering Value vs. Padres (July 25)

Saturday MLB Odds & Picks: Diamondbacks First 5 Line Offering Value vs. Padres (July 25) article feature image

Rob Leiter/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Starling Marte

Diamondbacks vs. Padres

MLB Odds & Picks: Pirates vs. Cardinals

Diamondbacks Odds +110
Padres Odds -124
Over/Under 8 (-114/-107)
First Pitch Saturday, 9:10 p.m. ET

Odds as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

After a quiet start to the game Friday, the bats came alive for the Padres, who put plated seven runs in the sixth and seventh innings. Eric Hosmer was the star of the game driving in six of Padres seven runs.

The Padres, equipped with an interesting collection of talent, are looking to take their next step and make the playoffs for the first time in 14 years. With the amount of big money moves they’ve made in the past few years, they look poised to challenge for a Wild Card spot.


Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

The Diamondbacks biggest move this offseason was trading for Starling Marte from the Pirates. They kept their core lineup together, so he’ll provide a boost to a lineup that already ranked toward the top of MLB in wRC+ last season.

Probable Stater

Robbie Ray, LHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)


Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Robbie Ray is a fairly average left handed pitcher. He has a four pitch arsenal, but mainly goes to his fastball and slider.

The main reason he’s categorized as “average” is none of his four pitches are elite, but none of them are his weakness either. His fast ball and slider generated a wOBA against over around .300 in 2019, which is considered slightly above average.


Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

The Padres are starting to build something out in San Diego. They added Tommy Pham, Jurickson Profar, and Trent Grisham over the offseason, which will provide a much needed boost to a lineup that ranked near the bottom of MLB in 2019.

Probable Starters

Dinelson Lamet, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Dinelson Lamet has some sick off speed pitches, especially his curveball and slider. In 2019, both pitches were elite, generating a 48.3% and 51.3% whiff rate respectively. His slider especially has some sick action on it.

Dinelson Lamet, Nasty 85mph Slider. Bellinger=🤺⚔️

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 27, 2017

However, he struggles with his fastball and sinker. In 2019 he allowed over a .400 wOBA on those two pitches. If he’s going to shut down the Diamondbacks on Saturday, he’ll have to utilize his curveball and slider a lot.


The Diamondbacks bullpen isn’t very deep. They have three front end guys who are above average, but after that it drops off quite a bit. The Padres have one of the best bullpens in baseball and will be called on early in this game, as I don’t have Lamet projected to last past 5 innings.

Projections and Pick

Since both lineups are about the same and I have Robbie Ray rated slightly better than Lamet, I think there is some value on the Diamondbacks First 5 inning moneyline.

Pick: Diamondbacks First 5 Innings (+115)

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