The Tampa Bay Rays host the Miami Marlins on May 16, 2026. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on RAYS.
The Rays are favored by -138 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Marlins are +118 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Marlins vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Marlins vs Rays Prediction
- Marlins vs Rays Pick: Marlins ML (+100 or Better)
My Marlins vs Rays best bet is on on the Fish to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Rays Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 7.5 -124o / 102u | +118 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 7.5 -124o / 102u | -138 |
- Marlins vs Rays moneyline: Marlins +118, Rays -138
- Marlins vs Rays over/under: 7.5 (-124 / +102)
- Marlins vs Rays spread: Rays -1.5 (+152), Marlins +1.5 (-184)
Marlins vs Rays Probable Pitchers
| Sandy Alcantara (RHP, MIA) | Stat | Nick Martinez (RHP, TBR) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | W-L | 4-1 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 3.90 / 3.46 | ERA / xERA | 1.70 / 3.83 |
| 3.74 / 4.45 | FIP / xFIP | 3.37 / 4.23 |
| 7.9% | K-BB% | 10.9% |
| 46.1% | GB% | 40.3% |
| .275 | BABIP | .252 |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 102 | Location+ | 105 |
Marlins vs Rays MLB Betting Preview
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
In Major League Baseball, road underdogs playing interleague games have historically been undervalued by oddsmakers.
Since 2016, despite winning only 43.1% of these games, these teams have generated a consistent positive ROI.
This trend has proven reliable across five consecutive seasons, indicating market inefficiencies in how these specific matchups are priced, likely due to a lack of familiarity between leagues and public overconfidence in home and favorite teams.
Marlins vs Rays Pick, Betting Analysis
Sandy Alcantara has had a few blow-up starts this season (7 ER against Detroit and Baltimore), but he's been close to peak Sandy otherwise. He's pumping in high-90s sinkers while forcing a ground-ball rate near 50% and pitching deep into starts (third-most IP among MLB pitchers).
I like Nick Martinez, but he's due for some general regression (1.70 ERA, 4.23 xFIP) given his low BABIP (.252) and a high strand rate (90%).
I like the Fish overall and believe they're undervalued. They have a fun, athletic, versatile young core that hits, runs well, and plays solid defense.
Getting the Marlins at plus-money with their ace on the mound is a good bet in my opinion.
Pick: Marlins ML (+100 or Better)
