The Minnesota Twins host the Milwaukee Brewers on May 16, 2026. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MNNT.
The Brewers are favored by -124 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Twins are +106 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Brewers vs Twins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Brewers vs Twins Prediction
- Brewers vs Twins Pick: Under 8 (-125 or Better)
My Brewers vs Twins best bet is on the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Twins Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | -124 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | +106 |
- Brewers vs Twins moneyline: Brewers -124, Twins +106
- Brewers vs Twins over/under: 8.5 (-108o / -111u)
- Brewers vs Twins spread: Brewers -1.5 (+134), Twins +1.5 (-162)
Brewers vs Twins Probable Pitchers
| Logan Henderson (RHP, MIL) | Stat | Connor Prielipp (LHP, MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 4.15 / 2.74 | ERA / xERA | 3.32 / 3.32 |
| 2.10 / 2.83 | FIP / xFIP | 4.36 / 4.23 |
| 28.6% | K-BB% | 17.7% |
| 22.6% | GB% | 34.7% |
| .300 | BABIP | .196 |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 113 | Location+ | 106 |
Brewers vs Twins MLB Betting Preview
Here we come to the biggest and most storied rivalry of Rivalry Weekend in Minnesota.
Logan Henderson has yet to allow more than two runs in eight major league starts. True, he only faced nine Royals in his first of this season, but the point stands.
He has a very early career 26.4 K-BB%, and if you look at his minor league records on his Fangraphs page, you won’t find a rate below 20% at any of his stops.
Henderson has allowed 10.1% Barrels/BBE, but when you’re striking out one-third of the batters you face, that’s not that bad. In fact, 30% of his hard contact in the majors has been barrels.
The only thing he doesn’t do well is generate ground balls (22.7%).
Minnesota has somehow become a top-three run environment (108 Park Run Factor in the latest Statcast update), but the home run factor for both right and left-handed batters is just 97. Henderson has also kept batters from either side of the plate below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA, too.
I do have some concerns about his ability to continue to strike out so many batters with an 11.6 SwStr%, but that’s still an above-average swing and miss rate.
Henderson’s 4.09 dERA does match his 4.15 ERA in this year’s three-start sample, but he doesn’t have another indicator reaching even three, and that includes pitch modeling. His 2.63 Bot ERA, 115 Pitching+ are both second best on Saturday’s entire board, behind only deGrom.
Connor Prielipp has been another very impressive young pitcher through his first four major league starts, striking out 26.6% of the batters he’s faced.
He, too, has a questionable 9.7 SwStr% that’s below league average and has also had some issues with ground balls (34.7%) and barrels (12.2%), but Prielipp has solid pitch modeling numbers (3.99 Bot ERA, 104 Pitching+) and prospect pedigree.
Fangraphs ranks him third in the Minnesota organization with a 50 Future Value Grade, which is generally a league average middle of the rotation pitcher.
Prielipp also has strong K-BB% marks through the minors, along with ground-ball rates of 45% or higher.
Brewers vs Twins Pick, Betting Analysis
While the Minnesota offense has been around average at home (100 wRC+) and against RHP (98), the Brewers have just a 77 wRC+ vs LHP this season, and their projected lineup’s 88 mark against southpaws since last season isn’t much better.
Finally, the Milwaukee bullpen also has the best ERA (2.86) and estimators (3.10 FIP/3.33 xFIP/3.16 SIERA) over the past 30 days.
Pick: Under 8 (-125 or Better)
