The New York Mets host the New York Yankees on May 16, 2026. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on FOX.
The Yankees are favored by -125 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Mets are +104 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Yankees vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Yankees vs Mets Prediction
- Yankees vs Mets Pick: Carlos Rodon Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-130, DraftKings)
My Yankees vs Mets best bet is Carlos Rodon to stay under his Outs prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Mets Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 8.5 -105o / -114u | -125 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -163 | 8.5 -105o / -114u | +104 |
- Yankees vs Mets moneyline: Yankees -125, Mets +104
- Yankees vs Mets over/under: 8.5 (-105o / -114u)
- Yankees vs Mets spread: Yankees -1.5 (+135), Mets +1.5 (-163)
Yankees vs Mets Probable Pitchers
| LHP Carlos Rodon (NYY) | Stat | RHP Huascar Brazoban (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 6.23 / 4.50 | ERA / xERA | 2.14 / 2.67 |
| 5.41 / 6.06 | FIP / xFIP | 3.48 / 4.13 |
| -4.8% | K-BB% | 9.8% |
| 70.0% | GB% | 52.6% |
| .182 | BABIP | .196 |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 71 | Location+ | 99 |
Yankees vs Mets MLB Betting Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Can Rodon Bounce Back?
The Yankees took Game 1 of the Subway Series thanks to a clutch two-out rally in the fourth inning that would ultimately put them ahead for good. That, along with another stellar outing from Cam Schlittler, has put the Yankees in a position to pull out all stops as they may need to with Carlos Rodon on the mound.
Rodon made his season debut last weekend against the Milwaukee Brewers, and he was far from sharp. He allowed three earned runs in just 4.1 innings of work while striking out four and walking five.
His command issues are a massive concern against a Mets team that is overdue for a crooked number to be put up against a left-handed pitcher. The Mets' lineup is one of the groups due for positive regression, and they have tremendous contact numbers against lefties; the results just haven't come yet.
If Rodon can't get ahead of these Mets hitters, they are bound to make him pay in a big way tonight.
New York Mets Betting Preview: Well's Getting Dry
Injuries are no strangers to the Mets, and last night's game, they suffered another critical one. Clay Holmes, who had been off to a stellar start to the 2026 season, suffered a broken leg after getting hit by a Spencer Jones line drive.
Holmes wound up being unable to finish the fifth, which put the Mets' bullpen in action early. They burned two long-relief arms in Tobias Myers and Austin Warren. Those two pieces will likely be unavailable today, making navigating their scheduled bullpen a lot more difficult.
Huascar Brazoban is going to open, and he's been excellent. However, when he departs, this game could fall apart. David Peterson will come in after Brazoban and he has not been great, regardless of his role, with a 5.49 ERA and a dip in CSW. His outlook against the Yankees is not great.
The Yankees are top five in wRC+, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate against lefties.
Yankees vs Mets Pick, Betting Analysis
There are question marks all over this second game of the Subway Series, and the coinflip moneyline odds and total portray that. I'm opting to lean into two things that are pretty secure.
Carlos Rodon is not fully stretched out, and his command issues only shorten his leash. Those command issues will likely amplify a Mets lineup that has the makings of a group that will do damage against lefties.
This combination points to a second shorter outing from Rodon, and his Outs prop needs him to work well into the sixth inning.
Fade Rodon here with confidence.
Pick: Carlos Rodon Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-130, DraftKings)
