MLB Odds, Picks | Mets vs Braves Same Game Parlay (Sunday, October 2)
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Ronald Acuna.
- The Mets are desperate for a win on Sunday Night Baseball against the Braves to stay in NL East contention.
- The Braves have won the first two games of this series, but our analyst is betting a same-game parlay predicated on a Mets win.
- Check out Charlie DiSturco's picks and analysis below.
Mets vs Braves Odds
|Time||7.08 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Atlanta Braves have taken hold of the National League East with two straight wins over the New York Mets. For any chance at winning the division, Sunday poses as a must-win for New York, who had long been atop the division.
It’s Chris Bassitt against Charlie Morton to cap off Sunday’s slate in what poses to be an entertaining bout between two rivals and World Series contenders. Where does the value lie in this series finale?
Here’s a same game parlay that addresses a side to take and three player props!
The Parlay (+1049):
- Mets Moneyline (+108)
- Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
- Francisco Lindor to Record an RBI (+170)
- Ronald Acuna to Get a Hit (-250)
Same-Game Parlay – New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves
Mets Moneyline (+108)
The Mets are likely stunned after losing the opening two games behind Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, but this is where they need to regroup and bounce back behind Bassitt.
There’s a clear advantage in favor of NY on the mound on Sunday. Bassitt has picked up where he left off in Oakland, posting a career-best 3.34 xERA and .226 xBA. His Barrel Rate remains around six percent, and he’s dominated since the All-Star break (2.57 ERA).
Morton, on the other hand, has his issues. Despite a .225 xBA, the 38-year-old ranks in the bottom 15 percent of all pitchers in Barrel Rate, and his expected indicators are north of 4.00 for the first time since 2016.
After early-season struggles with swings and misses, Morton has shored up any issues, and his curveball-fastball combo has resulted in a near-30 percent Strikeout Rate.
Here’s the kicker: In three games against the Mets, Morton has a 4.67 ERA. He gave up five or more runs twice — his other start being 6.2 scoreless — but Morton has struggled against this NY offense. Bassitt, meanwhile, has a 2.77 ERA against Atlanta in a pair of starts.
There’s a slight bullpen edge to Atlanta overall, but the high-leverage arms are a wash. Bassitt normally pitches deep into games, and with the Mets well-rested after two straight losses, we could even see an earlier call to Edwin Diaz should the Mets be ahead in the eighth inning.
Back the Mets to tie the NL East and extend this pennant race into the final series of the season.
Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Pete Alonso hasn’t necessarily provided much for the Mets in this series, but Sunday is the perfect opportunity for him to do some damage.
Once again Alonso has eclipsed 40 home runs in a season, and if there’s one player with extra-base hit potential with one swing of the bat on the Mets, it’s him. Not to mention that he has a .313 average across 16 at-bats against Morton, including a double.
Alonso surprisingly has reverse splits and hits right-handed pitching a lot better than southpaws. He has a .275 average and a .533 slugging as he has been seeing the ball well as of late. Over the last seven days, he has a 1.023 OPS with five home runs and three doubles.
In a game where the Mets need their stars to show up, Alonso is the best bet when it comes to total bases. He has proven to be the most successful against Morton and, hitting near the top of the lineup, should see at least four at-bats on Sunday night.
Francisco Lindor to Record an RBI (+170)
As with most same game parlays, it’s smart to build a narrative around how you see the game playing out. In a New York win, I’m betting on success against Morton, and that’s where we pick up here on Lindor to record an RBI.
Alonso has been batting second in the Mets order as of late with Lindor moving down to the three spot. If the same holds true on Sunday, then Lindor should be batting behind Brandon Nimmo and Alonso.
Nimmo has proven to be an on-base machine (.362), and I’ve already discussed how well Alonso has been playing as of late. I expect multiple opportunities for Lindor to cash in with runners in scoring position on Sunday night.
In three games against Morton this year, Lindor is 3-for-8 with a home run and four RBI.
Ronald Acuna to Record a Hit (-250)
After back-to-back games where Acuna went a combined 0-for-9, he racked up three hits in Saturday’s win against the Mets.
As the leadoff hitter for Atlanta, Acuna should see four at-bats at the minimum, and he’s been successful in limited plate appearances against Bassitt. Acuna is 2-for-5 with a walk against the right-hander.
Acuna also has been a Mets killer this year, with a .323 average and .892 OPS in 62 at-bats. I think this is the perfect add-on to the parlay that isn’t correlated to the narrative and helps boost the odds above that 10/1 benchmark I like to aim for.
This Braves offense is scary, and Acuna has a red-hot Dansby Swanson hitting after him — not to mention Austin Riley and Matt Olson also lurking behind — so I doubt the Mets will pitch around him.
Back Acuna to record a hit to round out the parlay. He doesn’t need to hit a home run; we just need a bloop single like he did on his check swing last night in the fifth.