The trade deadline is now in the rearview mirror, and we’re at the home stretch of the MLB season. And to nobody’s surprise, the superteam Los Angeles Dodgers added two-time reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal.
The beautiful thing about betting home runs on a daily basis, though? We don’t have to spend time groaning over Skubal and the Dodgers. We have matchups to break down and home runs to hit!
Last week, Pete Crow-Armstrong hit an extra-inning home run to give us a winning day. This series is now up to a 9-10 record, +2.62u.
I’ve circled three more players for Wednesday night that I like to find the outfield bleachers, so without further ado, let’s break it down.
Read on for my top 3 MLB player props today.
MLB Player Props Today
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:40 PM | |
| 7:40 PM | |
| 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Nationals vs. Phillies MLB Player Prop
We’re going to start off ugly, but I promise things will get better.
Dylan Crews’ big league career has been anything but what he imagined it’d be. He has bounced around both the Nationals and its minor league affiliates, as the former No. 2 overall pick has struggled to find his footing.
It seems like that time is slowly coming to an end.
Over the past 15 days, Crews has hit .293 with a pair of home runs and three doubles. He has seen his barrel rate reach double digits (10.5%) and looks comfortable toward the top of this Nationals lineup.
Not only is this a great matchup against right-hander Andrew Painter, but the weather is perfect for offense. BallparkPal projects a +34% increase in home runs, with the wind blowing out on Wednesday.
While that should come as good news to the offenses, it’s yet another obstacle for Painter to overcome. Similar to Crews, the hard-throwing righty has really struggled in his rookie season.
Painter has allowed a .465 xSLG, which ranks in the bottom 10% among qualified pitchers. He is struggling to strike out the opposition (18.3%), and he’s been barreled at a high clip (9.4%).
The 6-foot-7 Painter has allowed a home run in each of his last four starts. In 71 total innings, he’s been burned by the long ball 15 times (1.9 HR/9). His high-90s fastball has been tattooed to the tune of a .386 average against and .653 slugging percentage.
I’m happy to bet Crews here at such a long price. He has been swinging a hot bat and is starting to barrel the ball consistently. In a hitter-friendly park like Citizens Bank against a pitcher that has yet to find any success on the mound, I’ll take a dart throw on Crews.
Pick: Dylan Crews Home Run (13c, Polymarket)
Twins vs. Royals MLB Player Prop
I told you it would get better!
Dean Kremer makes his Minnesota Twins debut after being acquired at the trade deadline, so what better way to welcome the right-hander than by fading him.
Kremer has seen more swings and misses this season, but his batted ball data remains a concern. He is a fly-ball pitcher that ranks in the bottom 6% of all qualified pitchers in xSLG (.483). Kremer’s barrel rate is up at 8.7%, and he’s allowed a home run in six of his seven starts this season — he’s allowed 12 home runs across 36 innings.
While he is not going to allow three HR/9 over the second half of the season, there is no reason to start backing Kremer. The weather at Kauffman is also perfect for hitters on Wednesday, with BallparkPal projecting a +19% increase in HRs.
That brings me to the power bat of Jac Caglianone. The lefty has finally looked comfortable this season, and his underlying metrics are among MLB’s best. He ranks in the 98th percentile of all qualified hitters in hard-hit rate (55.3%) and has a team-best 14.4% barrel rate.
This is a perfect matchup against an arm like Kremer, who struggles against left-handed bats (.963 OPS, 7 HRs in 20 2/3 innings). The Royals are also finally getting healthier and providing some safety around Caglianone, with Bobby Witt Jr. returning from the injured list for this matchup.
After a post-All-Star break lull, Cags is starting to find his swing again. In the last five games, he’s found the outfield bleachers twice. This is a matchup I immediately circled and am more than happy with the price.
Pick: Jac Caglianone Home Run (22c, Polymarket)
Padres vs. Diamondbacks MLB Player Prop
If you’ve been following me for the last couple of years, you know that I cannot pull myself away from Fernando Tatis Jr.
The underlying metrics paint the picture of a much stronger season than the stats suggest. Fernando's 52.7% hard-hit rate ranks in the 95th percentile of qualified hitters, and he continues to produce a double-digit barrel rate despite just eight home runs. He's also hitting .280, his best batting average since 2021.
So I’m going to continue to believe in 'Nando and back him in what I think is a great matchup for all San Diego righties.
Southpaw Mitch Bratt takes the mound for Arizona, and he's exactly the type of pitcher to target when betting home run props. Bratt relies on inducing weak contact rather than missing bats, posting a 12.2% strikeout rate.
He is also a fly-ball pitcher, a dangerous combination for keeping the ball in the yard. Through his first five starts, Bratt has already surrendered four home runs.
Despite Tatis’ struggles this season, he does have an .877 OPS against left-handed pitching. That’s where most of his success has come, with 42.3% of all hits going for extra bases. Against right-handed pitchers, that number drops drastically to 22.7%.
The price is far too long for me not to bite on Tatis. Even if the home runs have not poured in for the 27-year-old, he is still hitting the ball hard and now finds himself against a southpaw that struggles with the long ball.
