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Friday MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Dodgers Overvalued vs. Diamondbacks (July 31)

Friday MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Dodgers Overvalued vs. Diamondbacks (July 31) article feature image

Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Christian Walker (53), David Peralta (6), Torey Lovullo.

  • The Dodgers are favored over the Diamondbacks on Friday night, but Brad Cunningham's model rates Arizona starter Zac Gallen higher than the betting market.
  • See why he likes the D'Backs despite a poor start to their 2020 campaign.

Propelled by a three-run first inning, the Dodgers beat the Diamondbacks, 6-3, on Thursday behind homers from A.J. Pollock, Corey Seager and Max Muncy. The win brought the Dodgers into a three-way tie for first place in the NL West while the reeling Diamondbacks have lost five of their first seven games. They’ll need to rebound quickly if they are going to challenge for the playoffs.


Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

The Dodgers have gotten off to a pretty good start with .334 wOBA and 120 wRC+. Seager, Pollock and Muncy have led their offense to begin the season, combining for a wOBA over .400 and 15 RBIs over the first 7 games.

Now, they’ve added Mookie Betts to an offense that was top-10 against fastballs and changeups in 2019. Arizona starter Zac Gallen will have to be effective with his pitch sequencing if he expects to succeed against the L.A. lineup.

Dodgers Projected Starter

Tony Gonsolin, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

In 2019, Tony Gonsolin posted a 2.92 ERA and a .177 BA against in 40 innings  in his first season in the show. However, those numbers are a little deceiving as his xFIP was a whopping 4.98. His main pitch is his fastball (47.9% thrown in 2019), but has average velocity (93.6 mph) without a lot of movement. Hitters tagged it pretty good in 2019, compiling a .347 wOBA.

His secondary pitches, however, were really effective in 2019. Cycling between a split-finger fastball, slider, and curveball, Gonsolin allowed just nine hits in 361 pitches. The split-finger has a lot of action moving in on right handed hits while his curveball has 12-to-6 motion and a really good bite. His slider is the least effective of the three, lacking any big movement and leaving him prone to hanging pitches in the zone.


Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)



The Diamondbacks have compiled a woeful .253 wOBA and 61 wRC+ over their first seven games, so facing a pitcher like Gonsolin offers them a good opportunity to turn things around.

Arizona’s biggest offensive addition this offseason was outfielder Starling Marte, who should boost a powerful lineup core that already ranked toward the top of MLB in wRC+ last season.

Diamondbacks Projected Starter

Zac Gallen, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Gallen is the Diamondbacks’ future ace. Between his fastball, changeup and curveball, he held opponents to a .186 average in 2019. The fastball has average velocity, but he has fantastic control over it and can move it all around the plate while his change and curveball have some nasty action on them.

Gallen’s changeup is especially elite and almost acts like a sinker with crazy late breaking action. Gallen’s only issue is his walk per 9 inning rate is a tad high at 4.05 in 2019. He won’t be able to afford getting behind in the count against the Dodgers loaded lineup. 

Dodgers and Diamondbacks Bullpens

The Dodgers bullpen is stretched pretty thin at the moment after pitching 13.1 innings over the past two days. A few of Arizona’s back-end guys probably wont be available for this game, but their primary relievers haven’t seen action over the past two days.

Projections and Pick

Based on my projections, Gallen rates out way better (0.51 BaseRuns/Inn) compared to Gonsolin (0.65 BaseRuns/Inn) who is due for some negative regression. Since I have the Diamondbacks favored in this game, I am going back them at +125 (BetMGM) and would back them all the way down to -102. 

Pick: Diamondbacks +120

[Bet Dodgers-Diamondbacks now at PointsBet and win $100 if either team get at least one hit]

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