Tuesday MLB Odds & Betting Picks: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox (August 18)
Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Eflin.
- The Phillies are a short favorite over the Red Sox on Tuesday night, with the total at a lofty 11.
- Teams playing after an off-day have been excellent so far in MLB this season, which Philadelphia falls into on Tuesday.
- Get Michael Arinze's full breakdown and bet for Phillies vs. Red Sox below.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Odds
|Phillies Odds||-126 [Bet Now]|
|Red Sox Odds||+110 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||11 (-105/-115) [Bet Now]|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
The Boston Red Sox appear to be free-falling at the moment. The Sox return home to Fenway Park on an eight-game losing streak after dropping last night’s game to the New York Yankees, 6-3.
If the losing streak wasn’t bad enough, the Red Sox had to sit through a 90-minute rain delay, which means they likely would’ve returned back to Boston in the early hours of the morning.
Awaiting the Red Sox at Fenway will be the Philadelphia Phillies, fresh off a three-game sweep of the New York Mets on Sunday afternoon.
With the rest advantage on its side, Philadelphia should like its chances even more when it takes into account tonight’s pitching matchup.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox will look to Zack Godley to halt their eight-game slide. This season, Godley is 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA and 2.02 WHIP. In each of his four starts, the right-hander has been unable to make it to the fifth inning. His last start proved to be his worst of the season, as he went just three innings while surrendering three dingers and eight runs.
This season, batters are hitting .354 against Godley, and on balls put in play (BABIP), they’re hitting .391. According to Baseball Savant, hitters this season are barreling up Godley’s pitches at an increased rate of 9.8%, up from 8.3% in 2019.
Part of Godley’s early struggle is that he’s falling behind hitters early in the count. His first-pitch strike percentage has dropped from 60.9% to 57.7%.
While that drop off might seem small, it could be the difference between a clean inning and letting multiple runners on base.
Godley will be opposed by Philly right-hander Zach Eflin. Making his third start, Eflin sits at 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA. In his two starts, Eflin’s underlying numbers have been impressive with a 3.32 FIP and 2.11 xFIP. Despite taking the loss in his last start, Eflin struck out 10 batters, setting a new career-high.
This will be Eflin’s first time facing the Red Sox as a whole. He has previously faced three hitters in their lineup, and in 15 at-bats, they’ve registered five hits with one home run and two RBIs. However, I’m not necessarily sure that previous success will translate into tonight’s matchup.
While it’s still early in the season, Eflin is walking fewer batters per nine innings, and his GB/FB ratio of 1.71 is the highest of his career. Even more impressive, his hard contact rate of 19.2% is almost half that of his 2019 output (37.9%).
The Phillies opened as favorites around -120, and they’ve already been bet up to as high as -140. This game, however, is attracting two-way action from sharps on both sides with some keen to back the dog.
Godley comes into the game 1-0 with a 1.53 ERA against the Phillies, but his most recent start against Philadelphia took place two years ago when he was with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Godley’s current numbers are a concern for me, and I’m not sure how much the Red Sox will have in the tank after receiving little rest. I’d prefer to have the more rested team in this matchup, and we’ve already seen examples of teams performing well this season in this situational spot.
Over the last 14 games, teams that have at least a one-day rest advantage are 11-3 with a return of 8.55 units.
That’s certainly a trend I can get behind at the moment.
FanDuel is offering the Phillies at -136 for the game, and that price looks just right for this bettor.
I’ll gladly take the better pitcher with the rested team to get the job done at Fenway tonight.
The Pick: Phillies -136 (up to -145)