Phillies vs. Yankee Odds & Pick: Back The Underdog

Credit:

Hunter Martin/Getty Images. Pictured: Zack Wheeler.

  • BJ Cunningham breaks down betting odds and makes his pick for Wednesday's MLB matchup between the Phillies and Yankees.

Phillies vs. Yankees Odds

Phillies odds +132 [BET NOW]
Yankees odds -152 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 7.5 (-114/-106) [BET NOW]
Time 4:05 p.m. ET

Odds as of Wednesday at 12 p.m. ET and via FanDuel. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Philadelphia Phillies

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

The Phillies were pretty quiet against Gerrit Cole and the Yankees bullpen last night, managing only three runs on eight hits. The Phillies have played only three other games this season, but in those games they had a wOBA of .367 and 133 wRC+.

To be fair, all three games were against the Marlins, so take those metrics with a grain of salt.

Phillies Projected Starter

Zack Wheeler, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)


Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Wheeler joins the Phillies after two successful seasons with the Mets. He has an elite fastball with top-end velocity and a lot of movement. In 2019 he added a few more miles-per-hour to his fastball and improved his whiff rate to 27.1%.

His slider also took a big step forward in 2019, improving from a 15.1% whiff rate in 2018 to 26.6% a year ago. Hitters reported a meager .272 wOBA average against it in 2019. If he continues to utilize his slider heavily in 2020, he may become an elite starter in this league.

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New York Yankees

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

The Yankees offense has been good to start the season with a .356 wOBA and 133 wRC+. However, they’ve also been beating up on two of the worst pitching staffs in the league over the past week in the Orioles and Red Sox.

New York’s lineup is loaded again this year, as the Yankees were able to keep their core together over the offseason. Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola will have his hands full during the second leg of Wednesday’s double-header.

Yankees Projected Starter

Jordan Montgomery, LHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Jordan Montgomery has suffered injuries in each of the past two seasons and hasn’t pitched a full season for the Yankees since 2017. He primarily uses his curveball and sinker to get batters out. While his curveball has been effective — producing a 42.8% whiff rate in 2017 — his sinker is a different story.

In 2017, hitters feasted on Montgomery’s sinker, posting a .342 batting average and a .414 wOBA. The Phillies ranked 13th against lefties last season with a .326 wOBA and 99 wRC+, which bodes somewhat ominously for Montgomery on Wednesday.

Bullpens

Both teams had the day off yesterday, so both pens should be fully rested. Still, the Yankees have a clear advantage, especially with Aroldis Chapman returning.

Projections and Pick

Based on my projections, I think the Phillies are undervalued in the first game (4:05 p.m. ET) of the doubleheader. I am happy to bet them at +132, and I would bet them all the way down to +115.

Pick: Phillies +132 (down to +115)

[Bet the Phillies at +158 odds with a 20% profit boost at Parx]

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