Rockies vs. Athletics Odds & Picks: Oakland Overpriced On Tuesday

Rockies vs. Athletics Odds & Pick

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The Rockies come into Oakland after taking two of three from the Rangers in Arlington. Surprisingly, the Rockies pitching staff was the star of the series, allowing only 5 runs on 16 hits. Colorado's bullpen has only been required for 9.2 innings to start the season, so it will be fully rested coming into this series.

The A's took three of four from the Angels to open up their season. Oakland started off the series in thrilling fashion with a walk-off grand slam from Matt Olson. They will be looking to potentially build an AL West lead on the Astros, who are facing the Dodgers in a three-game series this week.

Rockies Projected Lineup

The Rockies' offense wasn't great by any means in their series against the Rangers, only plating 8 runs on 6 hits. That performance came on the heels of a three-hit showing agains Lance Lynn and a terrible Rangers bullpen on Friday night.

The Rockies' biggest issue is the depth of their lineup. David Dahl, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado are all studs, combining for 484 wRC+ in 2019. However, after those four guys, the lineup drops off pretty hard. It’s usually difficult for the Rockies to produce offensively, when those four guys aren't putting up numbers.

Rockies Projected Starter 

Antonio Senzatela, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Antonio Senzatela is your classic "fill up the zone" type of pitcher. He primarily only uses his fastball, keeping it low in the zone to produce a lot of ground balls (53.8% ground ball rate in 2019). This type of pitcher can be effective if their stuff is good and they're able to interchange pitches. Senzatela is not one of those guys. His fastball isn't great, yielding a .403 wOBA against in 2019. I'll never forget watching Senzatela throw 23 fastballs in a row to open a game two years ago. The matchup against the A's won't bode well for him, as Oakland was the sixth-best fastball-hitting team in 2019.

Athletics Projected Lineup

The A's have one of the more underrated lineups in the American League, and it's one of the reasons why Stuckey bet them to win the World Series.

Oakland's offense was pretty good in its first series, scoring 17 runs on 20 hits. However, the A's compiled a wOBA of only .308, which is considered below average by MLB standards. In 2019, Oakland ranked seventh in MLB against right-handed pitching in terms of wRC+ and sixth against fastballs. They should have no trouble against Senzatela, who will be the weakest starting pitcher they've faced so far this season.

Athletics Projected Starter

Daniel Mengden, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Daniel Mengden has a whopping six different pitches he uses fairly often to keep hitters on their toes, but, in reality, his sinker and slider are his only two effective pitches. Mengden's fastball was hit around the park in 2019, leading to a .385 wOBA against and a 5.73 xFIP for the season. He'll need to use his off-speed pitches more often against the top of the Rockies lineup. Dahl, Story, Blackmon, and Arenado feasted on fastballs last season, accumulating 72.70 weighted fastball runs (wFB) in 2019.

Rockies and A's Bullpens

Oakland's relievers will be a little gassed after pitching 20.1 innings over the past four days. However, the A's have the advantage talent-wise in the bullpen.

Rockies-A's Projections and Pick

I really don't like betting on Senzatela, but the A's are overpriced with Mengden on the mound. I am going to back the Rockies for a fourth straight game at +155 and would take them all the way down to +140.

Pick: Rockies +155

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