MLB Odds & Picks: Sunday’s 4 Best Bets, Including Cardinals vs. Phillies
Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Adam Wainwright
While this weekend is filled with fireworks and Fourth of July celebrations, there are still plenty of chances to win some cash in MLB this Sunday.
Today, our experts dove into four different games to provide four best bets for a full slate of action.
Check out our picks below!
MLB Odds & Picks
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Tony Sartori: We have two fade-worthy lineups going against two solid starting pitchers in what I expect to be a low-scoring game.
With each of the past five meetings this season between these two teams going under this total, we have to ride the trend until it fails.
We have the trends on our side, the poor lineups and the starting pitching. The one area where we could get burned is with two below-average bullpens.
That being said, if each of these pitchers can get to at least the sixth or seventh inning, then the bullpens could be nullified.
You could also take the F5 under to avoid the bullpens. However, every time I do that, it seems to go over in the F5 and under for the full game, so I am sticking with the basics here.
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
Jules Posner: The combination of Erick Fedde and the Nationals' bullpen definitely signals some favorability toward the Marlins.
With the Marlins’ moneyline set at -140, this is actually a pretty fair value.
Even though Pablo Lopez has the name recognition, his unreliability on the road means the Marlins’ runline would be a reach.
Stick with the moneyline at -150 or better. If it goes beyond that, the value diminishes, but it’s probably the safest bet in this matchup.
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Charlie DiSturco: The Dodgers have been in control for the entire series, and I don't expect anything to change on Sunday.
Even with Manny Machado's return from an ankle injury, the Dodgers' pitching has kept San Diego's bats quiet.
It's just a bad matchup for the Padres. They draw one of the best pitchers in baseball in Clayton Kershaw, matching with a rookie in MacKenzie Gore who should continue to struggle.
Gore is not 7.27 ERA bad-like in June, but he's still due for negative regression and should find himself in the low-to-mid 4s ERA wise.
Mookie Betts' addition to the lineup provides a significant boost for the Dodgers, too. While their offense has been inconsistent in June, Betts provides stability atop the lineup.
The line opened heavily in the Dodgers' favor and continued to move in their direction, and for good reason. They have the edge at the plate, on the mound and bullpen-wise.
It's a lot of juice, but I think it's worth backing the Dodgers on the first five innings runline on Sunday. If you don't want that steep of a price — it sits between -134 and -140 — then add the F5 ML in a parlay with another heavy favorite you trust.
The Dodgers should continue to roll behind Kershaw en route to a series sweep of San Diego.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Tanner McGrath: While regression is on the horizon, I continue to find Adam Wainwright undervalued in the betting markets. He’s going to give you five-plus innings of solid ball no matter what.
Zack Wheeler scares me. He’s posted a 4.18 xFIP in four career starts against the Cardinals, while Wainwright has a 3.56 xFIP in 17 career appearances against the Phillies.
The Phillies' lineup looks so stripped down with Bryce Harper gone. Plus, the Cardinals hold the advantage on both defense and in the bullpen.
All-in-all, we’re catching the Cards on Wainwright day with plus money.
That’s as good of a spot as you’re going to get on Sunday night.
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