The MLB Postseason continues with a pair of crucial Game 3s on Tuesday, October 7.
Our MLB betting experts have looked over the odds and identified the best value on the board. We've got a system pick on a total and a pair of MLB player prop predictions, so continue reading for today's MLB best bets.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:08 p.m. | |
| 4:08 p.m. | |
  | 8:08 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Zerillo's Mariners vs Tigers Best Bet: Back Gilbert in Game 3
By Sean Zerillo
I didn't anticipate that the Mariners would save arguably their best available pitcher, Logan Gilbert (3.03 xERA, 2.95 xFIP, 26.5% K-BB%), for Game 3. Gilbert has a decent home/road split (xFIP 0.6 runs higher from 3.24 to 3.82, and K-BB% 5.5% lower from 23.7% to 18.2%, on the road than at home for his career), though perhaps not as pronounced as Game 1 and 2 starters, George Kirby and Luis Castillo.
Since the start of last season, Gilbert ranks sixth among qualified starters — between Logan Webb and Zack Wheeler — with a 3.05 xFIP, and he's tied with Wheeler for third in K-BB% (24.3%) over the same span.
This is a plus matchup for him, facing an offense that struggles with righties (19th on the season, 24th, 89 wRC+ after the trade deadline) and strikes out a ton (28th vs. RHP after the deadline), even at home.
Conversely, the Mariners significantly improve their own K% on the road, finishing 13th in away strikeout rate (24.3%) vs. right-handed pitching compared to 28th (22.2%) at home.
T-Mobile Park in Seattle has the highest strikeout factor (+17% over the past three seasons) by a wide margin; hitters struggle to see the ball there. Conversely, Comerica Park has a below-average strikeout factor (-3% over the same span) and should play closer to neutral.
The Mariners utilized their high-leverage arms extensively in the first two games of the series, deploying Matt Brash, Andres Munoz, Gabe Speier, and Eduard Bazardo on consecutive days. And Gilbert, crucially, has not shown a significant platoon split (career 3.44 xFIP vs. lefties, 3.63 vs. righties, and K-BB% within 1.1%).
As a result, I expect a longer leash for Gilbert on Tuesday in what will be his only start of the series. Take Over 6.5 Strikeouts to -125.
Pick: Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)
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