A pair of elimination games are on the schedule for Thursday, October 9.
The Phillies are looking to extend their season in Los Angeles against the Dodgers, and the Cubs are seeking a home win against the Brewers. Our MLB betting experts have looked over today's odds and have made picks for both games, so continue reading for today's MLB best bets.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:08 p.m. | |
  | 9:08 p.m. | |
| 9:08 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Zerillo's Phillies vs Dodgers Best Bet: Expect Plenty of Runs
By Sean Zerillo
The Dodgers and Phillies will have a rare 3:08 p.m. local time start at Dodger Stadium on Thursday, which initially concerned me about abnormal shadows. However, games played in that timeslot are 163-152-15 to the Over at Dodger Stadium since 2005, alleviating that concern.
The ball generally flies better at Dodger Stadium during the day than it does at night (+2% to the run scoring factor, day 104 vs. night 102 per Baseball Savant), and the park will feature good hitting weather on Thursday — 81 degrees (84 real feel) at first pitch, with 5-to-6 MPH winds blowing out to right field.
Moreover, the game will have a hitter-friendly umpire behind the dish in Mark Wegner (career 294-273-23 or 51.8% to the Over); his 11.4% K-BB% is 2.7% below the MLB average.
I set the total at 8.25 runs, and would bet Over 7.5 to -115 pregame, or I'd wait for a live Over 7.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-120)
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Sean Paul's Brewers vs Cubs Best Bet: Milwaukee Should Clinch Series
By Sean Paul
Freddy Peralta allowed just two runs in his Game 1 outing, both via solo home runs. He also struck out nine hitters and walked three, so it was basically the most Peralta start ever. He lives up in the zone with a mid-to-high 90s fastball that can lead to homers if poorly located or walks if he loses the zone. However, he's one of the better pitchers in the game when he's locating his pitches well.
Peralta is sensational at generating weak contact, ranking in the 80th percentile in average exit velocity and in the 90th percentile in hard-hit rate. That's a bit different for a pitcher who throws his four-seam fastball over 56% of the time, but his fastball is so elite that it's tough to barrel up.
The Brewers' offense came back to earth in September, falling to 14th in MLB with a 101 wRC+. They and the Blue Jays have such a tough offensive approach. Nothing comes easy against either, but the Brewers are particularly tough. They finished September in the top five in walk and strikeout rate.
One of the big differences for Milwaukee in the NLDS is the performance of Jackson Chourio. He looked totally lost for the last month of the regular season, but he's flipped the script by hitting .545 thus far in the postseason. One of the bigger knocks on Milwaukee is its lack of star power. I feel comfortable with the star power of Chourio and Christian Yelich.
Milwaukee also has a bullpen advantage. With Trevor Megill and Abner Uribe occupying the 8th and 9th innings, it'll be tough for the Cubs to stage a late-inning comeback.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-115)
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Bet Labs' Brewers vs Cubs Best Bet: System Suggests Under
By Bet Labs
This system targets unders in MLB series games (Game 2 or later) when both teams have winning records, suggesting quality pitching and competitive matchups. However, when public betting leans toward the over — likely expecting fireworks between top teams — it creates contrarian value on the under. By capitalizing on low public support for the under (≤35%), this system fades public perception in favor of market inefficiencies, especially when bettors overestimate offensive output late in a series.
Overall, this system has cashed 54% of its picks (1395-1190-111) and has generated a 5% ROI.
Pick: Under 7 (+100)
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