As always, it's a shorter slate on Monday.
But, as always, we have three best bets for the games, including one from Sean Paul, another from Mike Ianniello, and a final projection from Sean Zerillo.
Read on for our MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today, April 13.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
The team logos in the table below represent the matchups our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Astros vs Mariners Moneyline Pick
By Sean Paul
I'm taking Astros ML.
Mike Burrows is just a decent mid-rotation arm.
George Kirby is better without a doubt, and the Astros' pen is one of the worst in MLB.
However, I think the Astros' lineup matches up well with Kirby. They have a good balance of lefty and righty bats to challenge Kirby's flow.
Plus, his strikeout rate is down, and his walk rate is up. If he can't stay in the zone, Houston will make him pay.
Read Paul's full Astros-Mariners breakdown here:
Pick: Astros ML (+120 or Better)
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Cubs vs Phillies Moneyline Picks
As great as Cristopher Sanchez is, he is especially dominant at Citizens Bank Park.
Sanchez reached another level at home in the City of Brotherly Love last season, pitching to a 1.94 ERA in 15 home starts. He punched out 115 batters in 97 innings during those outings.
Throughout his career, Sanchez has posted a 9.37 K/9 rate and a 2.68 ERA at home compared to a 7.69 K/9 rate and 3.92 ERA on the road. His BB/9 is a full run lower at home. In two home starts this year, he has allowed just one run behind 17 strikeouts.
Chicago’s offense has been slumping at the plate to start the season, with all of its top guys really struggling.
You can look at the Cubs with some optimism, as they have at least been hitting the ball hard, ranking in the top five in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. They have been a bit unlucky at the plate, and a turnaround would not be surprising.
But I don't see that coming against Sanchez on Monday.
Sanchez is able to generate a 58% ground ball rate by pounding the bottom of the zone with a 95 MPH sinker. He ranked fourth in the league in ground ball rate last season. Sanchez does not care if you hit the ball hard because it will stay on the ground. He is either going to strike you out with his changeup, or you’ll hit a hard grounder to shortstop.
Philadelphia’s offense has been struggling just like Chicago’s, but at least their top dogs are easier to trust right now. Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper finally got going at the plate over the last week. Harper is hitting .526 with a 1.535 OPS over the last seven days.
Sanchez dominates at Citizens Bank Park, and so do the Phillies' bats. They averaged 5.3 runs at home last season compared to 4.2 on the road.
Lay the bigger number with the Phillies at home with Sanchez on the mound.
Pick: Phillies ML (-190 or Better)
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Red Sox vs Twins Moneyline Predictions, Projections
By Sean Zerillo
While Garrett Crochet's velocity (95.3 MPH and 95.7 MPH in his past two starts) is down a bit from last season (96.4 MPH), he also sat between 94.8 and 95.8 MPH in three starts last April.
It seems like he's still ramping up and had an off-day on the road in Houston. Crochet's early strikeout rate — the quickest indicator to stabilize — is nearly in line with both his career and 2025 averages.
Conversely, I remain significantly down on Bailey Ober, whose velocity has tumbled from a career 91.4 MPH to 88.7 this season (90.3 MPH in 2025).
His Stuff+ is down from 97 to 91, and in the early sample, his K-BB rate has shown a three-year decline from 26.9% to 19.2% and 11.9%, as his swinging-strike rate has fallen from 14.2% to 11.7% and 8.0%.
Ober has a league-average slider and decent command, but everything else in his arsenal is flat and hittable, and if batters are patient, then they can spit at balls and wait for the right pitch to drive, with him throwing at reduced velocity.
I forecast Ober towards the lower end of his FIP range (4.18 to 5.00), which is in line with his early-season xFIP (5.05), meaning there is nearly a two-run projection gap between Ober and Crochet (range 2.78 to 3.01). Boston also has a superior bullpen.
Moreover, despite the difference in early-season performance (Twins ninth, Red Sox 25th, per wRC+), the two lineups project about the same offensively, given their respective splits (the Twins have a bunch of lefty mashers and project better against southpaws).
However, the Red Sox field a far more competent defensive team and have the advantages nearly everywhere in Monday's matchup.
Read Zerillo's Opening Pitch for Monday here:
Pick: Red Sox ML (-175 or Better)
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