The Seattle Mariners host the Houston Astros on April 13, 2026. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SEAM.
The Mariners are favored by -171 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Astros are +141 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Astros vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Astros vs Mariners Prediction
- Astros vs Mariners Pick: Astros ML (+141; Play to +120)
My Astros vs Mariners best bet is on Houston to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Mariners Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -149 | 7.5 -108o / -112u | +141 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +123 | 7.5 -108o / -112u | -171 |
- Astros vs Mariners spread: Astros +1.5 (-149), Mariners -1.5 (+123)
- Astros vs Mariners over/under: 7.5 (-108o / -112u)
- Astros vs Mariners moneyline: Astros +141, Mariners -171
Astros vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Mike Burrows (HOU) | Stat | RHP George Kirby (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 5.63/4.39 | ERA /xERA | 3.60/2.97 |
| 5.02/4.38 | FIP / xFIP | 4.39/3.49 |
| 1.75 | WHIP | 0.90 |
| 12.3% | K-BB% | 14.9% |
| 37.3% | GB% | 59.6% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 95 | Location+ | 115 |
Astros vs Mariners Preview
Houston Astros Betting Preview
The Astros are off to a horrid start to the 2026 season, sitting at 6-10 and staring down a four-game sweep by the Mariners.
Pitching is the issue for Houston. Between injuries and poor performances, the Astros have a 6.47 ERA — the worst in MLB by a full run.
Houston will give Mike Burrows the ball in the series finale. The former Pirates pitcher are off to a tough start, owning a 5.63 ERA but a decent 4.39 xERA and 5.02 FIP.
He took a loss in two of his three outings (vs the Rockies and Angels), giving up 8+ hits and 3+ runs in both games. The expected numbers are worrying, too. He ranks in the 13th percentile in barrel rate and 36th in xBA.
Nothing about Burrows’ attack is intimidating. He provides length, which Houston needs. He isn't a top-end of the rotation arm, though. He throws five pitches, sits around 94 on his four-seamer, and his Stuff+ is a 93.
Pitching in Seattle could limit Burrows potential homer issues, at least. He gave up homers in two of his three starts (three total), but Seattle is 20th in park factor for home runs since 2024.
The Astros pitching has erased the dominance of their offense. They rank second in MLB with a 146 wRC+, just behind the Dodgers (148). Yordan Alvarez is the head of the offensive snake, leading baseball with a 260 wRC+. The big lefty slugger is one of six Astros players with a wRC+ better than 110.
Their approach is tough on opposing pitchers, as they sit fourth with a 12% walk rate and third with an 18% strikeout rate. Nobody else in the top 10 of K rate also has a walk rate better than 10.5%.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview
The Mariners have beaten up on the Astros, but they aren't on a torrid pace, either. They enter Monday's series finale with a 7-9 record.
George Kirby is off to another strong start for Seattle, posting a 3.60 ERA with a 2.97 xERA and 4.39 FIP. The former All-Star drew a loss in his last two outings, giving up three runs to the Yankees and four to the Rangers — two strong offensive teams.
Kirby throws five pitches, led by his four-seamer, which he throws 41% of the time. He also mixes in four other offerings 11-16% of the time. He'll crowd left-handed batters with his cutter and try to get right-handed batters to use his sinker to hit the ball on the ground. He won't strike many batters out, so expect the ball to be in play.
I have some real worries about the Mariners bats, though. They rank 20th in MLB with a 93 wRC+ and a brutal 26.4% strikeout rate.
The issue is that Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, and Julio Rodriguez have been horrible. Rodriguez is notoriously a slow starter, so his 54 wRC+ isn't a huge stunner. However, Raleigh is a shell of the hitter he was in his AL MVP Runner-Up campaign, and Naylor is hitting .107. Things won't change until Seattle's streaky offense hits better.
Astros vs Mariners Picks
I'm taking the value here, which is with the Astros ML. Burrows is just a decent mid-rotation arm. Kirby is better without a doubt and the Astros pen is one of the worst in MLB.
However, I think the Astros' lineup matches up well with Kirby. They have a good balance of lefty and righty bats to change Kirby's flow. Plus, his strikeout rate is down, and his walk rate is up. If he can't stay in the zone, Houston will make him pay.
Pick: Astros ML (+141; Play to +120)
