We have a 15-game slate today, starting early with Blue Jays vs Rays at 6:40 p.m. ET and closing with Padres vs. Giants at 9:45 p.m. ET.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for Tuesday.
Below are five expert MLB picks and predictions for today's slate of games.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
  | 9:45 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Zerillo's Athletics vs Phillies Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
Editor's Note: This written best bet is a transcription from the latest episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
I project the Phillies as -225 ML favorites, so I would bet them at -205 or better.
Cristopher Sanchez has a significant edge over Luis Severino in starting pitching, about a run and a half in underlying metrics. I project Sanchez as a top-10 starting pitcher, while I rank Severino as SP No. 99, or a slightly below-average starter.
I also give the Phillies a massive bullpen advantage. I project the Phillies as a top-12 bullpen, while I project the A’s as the league’s third-worst bullpen.
The weather is also a significant factor. We’re expecting solid hitting weather, with double-digit winds blowing out toward left field and temperatures in the low-70s.
The ball should be flying today, and that really benefits Philadelphia, given that Sanchez (57% GB rate) keeps the ball on the ground far more often than Severino (42% GB rate).
Pick: Phillies ML (-205 or Better)
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Jon Anderson's Blue Jays vs Rays Prop Pick
By Jon Anderson
This is a tough game to bet on.
The offenses are extremely simple. They are elite at getting balls into play, but near the bottom of the league in racking up homers and extra-base hits. That can go a lot of different ways. Both offenses are subject to BABIP variance and coming up with those hits at the exact right time.
My projection model likes the Rays to win this one 4.4 to 4.2. That's well above the Over 7 if you can get that number at a reasonable price.
I'm also quite often attracted to Drew Rasmussen's pitching outs prop.
He's thrown 5, 5, 6, 3 2/3, 6, and 5 innings in his six starts. The Rays have let him go above 90 pitches in his last two outings, but they're very hesitant to let him go out for the sixth if he's above 80 pitches.
So I'll just bet on the basic math. Rasmussen has come up short of 17.5 outs in 73% of his starts dating back to last year.
It's not going to be the same rate moving forward, as he has fewer restrictions this year than last, but that's a stark number, and I think it gives us a nice edge.
Pick: Drew Rasmussen Under 17.5 Outs (-105 or Better)
Check out Anderson's full Jays-Rays preview here:
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Tanner McGrath's Reds vs Cubs Over/Under Best Bet
It’s another classic "Wrigley Wind" day on the North Side.
While the weather report for Tuesday night's Cubs vs. Reds game shows modest winds, the wind is expected to be blowing cross-field toward the third-base side.
Combine that with temperatures in the mid-50s, and we should see a significantly suppressed run-scoring environment.
As you might know, betting Unders at Wrigley where the wind is either blowing in or cross-field is historically very profitable.
We have an Action PRO System dedicated to tracking this exact phenomenon.
Since 2005, when the wind is blowing either in or cross-field at Wrigley, the Under is 304-200-27, a 60.3% win rate providing a 15.7% ROI.
As written by our own Evan Abrams:
This System focuses exclusively on Cubs home games, where wind direction is a major scoring variable. When the wind blows in or across (from the sides), and the total opens between eight and 13, Unders become highly valuable. Wrigley is uniquely sensitive to weather due to its field orientation and lack of a dome, making it the premier ballpark for wind-based betting edges.
Between the wind direction and the mid-50s temperatures, BallParkPal's weather model projects a -17% run-scoring factor for today's game, lowering his projected total by 1.52 runs compared to a weather-neutral day.
Similarly, our own Sean Zerillo projects a significant edge on the Under in this matchup. While the consensus line sits around 8.5, he projects it closer to 7.5, likely due to a significant weather-related adjustment.
As a reminder, you can see all of Zerillo's MLB game projections with an Action PRO Subscription. Find his projected lines every day on the PRO Projections tab.
Pick: Under 8 (-110 or Better)
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Braves vs Mariners Moneyline Angle To Target
We're getting too much value to pass up on the Braves to even up the series.
This team has the best record in baseball, while the Mariners are two games below .500.
I know that George Kirby is better than Bryce Elder, but what we're seeing from Elder so far makes him worth backing at +120 odds at the time of this article. He's been a quality start machine so far this year.
On top of that, the Braves currently rank first among MLB lineups with a 124 wRC+. This offense can pose a problem for any pitcher, especially one who ranks below average in hard-hit rate, like Kirby.
Pick: Braves ML (+120 or Better)
Check out Frank's Braves-Mariners preview here:
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Padres vs Giants Moneyline Picks
Today's starters are on opposite ends of the spectrum in name value, but their 2026 peripheral stats are not that far apart.
Walker Buehler has a 4.87 xERA, 3.43 FIP, 4.04 xFIP, and a 4.26 SIERA. 2025 All-Star Logan Webb has a 4.43 xERA, 3.47 FIP, 3.45 xFIP, and a 3.69 SIERA.
While Buehler's 5.40 ERA is more than a full run higher than Webb's 4.30 ERA, Webb is not pitching significantly better than he would in a "normal" season. To Webb's credit, he does pitch deeper into games. However, Buehler's worst start came in Coors Field against the Rockies. Webb has not pitched in a similar hitter-friendly environment yet.
Also, the Padres' high-leverage relievers are all fresh for this game. Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada, and Mason Miller have each pitched just once this month. None of them pitched in Monday's game, guaranteeing availability for this matchup.
The Padres' offense ranks as average by wRC+ (16th) against right-handed pitching, while the Giants are last. This advantage, combined with their elite bullpen, makes up for the difference between Webb and Buehler as starters today.
Pick: Padres ML (+110 or Better)
Check out Kev's full Padres-Giants preview here:
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Sean Zerillo's Full Action App Card Today
Need more picks for Tuesday's action on the diamond? It's always wise to see what our guy Zerillo is betting on!
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