Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Wednesday, August 12.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Rays Run Line
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Junior Caminero Over 2.5 HRR
- Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 HRR
- Guardians vs Tigers — NRFI
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 2.5 HRR
- Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ Double
- Cubs Moneyline
Rays vs Athletics Picks
Right-hander Drew Rasmussen will take the mound for Tampa Bay, while the A’s will send out righty Jack Perkins.
In 28 appearances, Perkins has recorded an abysmal 7.04 ERA along with an inefficient 1.45 WHIP. He has also surrendered a whopping 60 earned runs in just over 76 frames on the bump this season.
While Perkins has largely struggled over the course of his 2026 campaign thus far, Rasmussen has been phenomenal across his 22 outings this season.
Rasmussen has recorded an extremely impressive 2.75 ERA on the season with an exceptional 0.91 WHIP, which ranks 11th and third amongst starting pitchers, respectively.
In addition to a rather substantial edge on the mound on Wednesday, the Rays are scorching, with Tampa having prevailed in nine of the team’s last 11 games.
While Perkins and Rays slugger Junior Caminero have yet to face one another, this is a matchup in which I heavily favor the Rays youngster, who is having another stellar campaign after having finished 2025 with 45 homers and 110 RBIs.
Despite a sluggish start this season, Caminero ranks inside the top five in all of baseball with 33 homers on the season, while also recording 71 RBIs (16th) and an impressive .916 OPS (21st).
According to BARTOLO, Perkins favors throwing his four-seam fastball more than any other pitch in his arsenal (34.8 USG%) despite opposing hitters having recorded a solid .387 xwOBA against that offering.
Caminero absolutely crushes fastballs with his elite exit velocities and launch angles versus heaters, and I expect him to match up phenomenally with Perkins’ sweeper as well.
Perkins has been extremely susceptible to hard contact and high-launch fastballs this season, and I expect that to continue on Wednesday afternoon versus a power slugger of Caminero's caliber.
Picks:
- Rays Run Line
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Junior Caminero Over 2.5 HRR
Rockies vs Diamondbacks Picks
Right-hander Ryan Feltner will take the mound for Colorado, while the Diamondbacks will trot out righty veteran Merrill Kelly.
In 17 outings, Feltner has recorded a subpar 5.71 ERA across his 82 frames this season. The Rockies’ righty has not been very efficient either, posting a 1.45 WHIP thus far.
Despite Diamondbacks’ 2B Ketel Marte having failed to record a single hit across five previous plate appearances versus Feltner, I still think this is a prime spot to back Marte to have a massive day at the plate.
According to BARTOLO, Feltner heavily favors throwing his four-seam fastball more than any other pitch in his arsenal, throwing it at a 27.3% clip.
While Feltner seems pretty comfortable falling back on his top offering, opposing hitters have recorded an extremely high .416 xwOBA when facing his four-seamer.
Feltner also relies on soft contact to retire hitters, with his top offering having generated just a 13% whiff rate and strikeout rate, which could be very problematic when facing Marte — who demolishes four-seam fastballs.
The Dbacks’ superstar boasts elite bat speed and aggressively targets pitches in the upper heart of the zone, which has resulted in his consistently posting high slugging metrics and hard-hit rates versus high-velocity offerings.
Pick: Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases
Brewers vs Padres Picks
In 115 innings, Brewers’ right-hander Dustin May has largely struggled, having posted a 4.30 ERA throughout his 22 outings this season.
That said, I expect Padres’ superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. to continue his scorching form at the plate with another massive performance on Wednesday afternoon.
Tatis has successfully barreled May’s elite high-velocity sinker and four-seam fastball mix, having hit for extra bases along with a .323 OBP across the two’s previous encounters — one of which was a home run.
Despite a very rocky start to his 2026 campaign, Tatis has exploded in the latter half of the season, ranking inside the top-5 in OPS post-All-Star break.
While May has done a great job limiting Tatis Jr. in those previous encounters, the Brewers’ righty has struggled with the command of his arsenal, which, in turn, has often forced him to throw high-velocity strikes in the zone, which could prove to be a fatal mistake versus a slugger of Tatis' caliber.
Despite Jackson Chourio having missed a large chunk of the season after having suffered an injury in a World Baseball Classic exhibition game, Chourio has come back with a vengeance, having smashed four homers across Milwaukee's last seven games.
Padres’ lefty Robbie Ray has been quite impressive in his first season in San Diego with a 3.24 ERA, but I still expect Chourio to get the best of him.
Ray heavily relies on establishing his four-seam fastball early in counts, at 34 USG%, despite opposing hitters having fared pretty well versus that particular offering with a .362 xwOBA per BARTOLO.
Chourio boasts exceptional bat speed with hard-hit rates that have led to his absolutely demolishing fastballs with an impressive ability to turn on inside pitches.
If Ray can't locate his slider low and away early on in the count, I expect Ray to elevate his four-seam fastball up in the zone. Though that could be problematic, since Chourio's elite barrel-rate metrics can result in some serious damage.
Picks:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 HRR
Guardians vs Tigers Picks
Left-hander Foster Griffin will take the mound for the Guardians after having just been traded from the Nationals at the trade deadline.
In 23 starts, Griffin has recorded an impressive 3.31 ERA along with a very efficient 1.11 WHIP — both of which rank inside the top-15.
He has fanned 122 batters across his 133.1 innings pitched this season, and is also posting a 12-4 record, which ranks sixth in the Major Leagues amongst starters.
Framber Valdez will take the mound for the Tigers on Wednesday, surely looking to improve on what has been an up-and-down 2026 campaign thus far.
Prior to this season, Valdez was on a tear throughout his several years pitching for the Astros, having finished with a sub-3.66 ERA in seven of his eight seasons in Houston.
While Valdez has taken a big step back in his first season in Detroit, he is starting to rediscover his elite form, recording a quality start in consecutive outings.
Picks: NRFI
Cubs vs Nationals Picks
Right-hander Miles Mikolas will take the mound for the Nationals, while lefty David Peterson will make the start for the visiting Cubs.
In 24 appearances, Mikolas has recorded an abysmal 5.89 ERA and surrendered 74 earned runs across his 113 innings.
Given Mikolas’ struggles, I expect this to be a prime spot to target Cubs’ slugger Pete Crow-Armstrong to be a beneficiary.
In 11 career at-bats versus Mikolas, Crow-Armstrong has recorded eight hits, including a double, five home runs and six RBIs.
Mikolas relies heavily on a pitch-to-contact mix that features a sinker, four-seamer, slider and curveball, all of which do not have overpowering velocity.
He also puts himself in a precarious position. Mikolas doesn't have elite velocity, and Crow-Armstrong, who has tremendous pull-power, is set up for a big day.
Crow-Armstrong’s .727 AVG with a near-50% homer rate across his previous encounters versus Mikolas is appalling and easily ranks amongst the top head-to-head splits that a batter has over a pitcher.
Along with what I believe will be dominance at the plate from Crow-Armstrong, I will also be looking to back the Cubs on their moneyline.
Picks:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 2.5 HRR
- Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ Double
- Cubs Moneyline
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, August 12
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- Rays Run Line
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Junior Caminero Over 2.5 HRR
- Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 HRR
- Guardians vs Tigers — NRFI
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 2.5 HRR
- Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ Double
- Cubs Moneyline
