MLB Picks Today: Cardinals vs. Dodgers Preview (Friday, September 23)
Scott Kane/Getty Images. Pictured: Yadier Molina and Tommy Edman
Cardinals vs. Dodgers Odds
|Time||10:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Cardinals lost three straight games, including the first two of three in San Diego, before taking the last game of the series 5-4 on Thursday night. The Cardinals’ magic number is now five to clinch the NL Central over the Milwaukee Brewers, who start a series with the Reds in Cincinnati tonight.
The Cardinals are 51-27 (.654 WP) at home but just 37-36 (.507 WP) on the road after losing two of three to the Padres. Can they pull the upset on the Dodgers of all teams on the road tonight?
Righty Cardinals Bats Need to Step Up
St. Louis’ offense isn’t to blame for its mediocre road record. The Cardinals are seventh in all of baseball averaging 4.74 runs per game on the road this season.
Andrew Heaney will start for the Dodgers, and the lefty has been outstanding with a 2.66 ERA in 13 starts and a 35% Strikeout Rate. Still, he has allowed a .245 ISO to right-handed hitters this season, and Albert Pujols, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nolan Arenado all have ISOs above .260 against left-handed pitching. Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson also each have ISOs above .175 against left-handed pitching this year.
If the Cardinals offense is going to break through against Heaney, it’ll likely take at least one big hit from one of their power bats.
Will the Dodger Bats Stay Hot at Home?
Jose Quintana has a 3.16 ERA in 29 starts for the Cardinals, but his xFIP is 4.25, and his road ERA sits at 4.60. He will be challenged against a Los Angeles lineup that is second in all of baseball, averaging 5.36 runs per game at home.
The Dodgers have two hitters with at least a .260 ISO against left-handed pitching this season in Mookie Betts and Trea Turner, but Quintana has allowed just a .113 ISO to right-handed hitters this season.
Heaney has shown a lot of improvement with the Dodgers this year, and Quintana has been pedestrian on the road, but does that really mean the Dodgers deserve to be as heavily favored as -170 here?
I think there’s value on the Cardinals side here as this game means more to them than the Dodgers. I took the Cardinals +145 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pick: Cardinals ML (+145)
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