MLB Player Props: Look to Lucchesi for Betting Value
Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joey Lucchesi.
- After a disappointing night, we're looking to get back to winning ways behind a couple of southpaws.
- We're targeting the strikeout over/unders for Max Fried and Joey Lucchesi.
Yesterday’s article was called “Doubling Down in Kansas City.” What it should have been called was “doubling down on overs for pitchers who would leave their respective games with injuries and tripling down on losses.” Not a great night!
The Gallant household was not a pleasant place to be. You should’ve seen the looks on my kids’ faces when I learned that Felix Hernandez was removed after the first inning. Just kidding, I don’t have any kids. The spiders in my parents’ basement were cowering in fear, though. That’s for sure.
How ’bout some wins today?
MLB Player Props, Tuesday April 9
Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 1:10 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Rockies SP Max Fried
The pick: Over 4.5 (+110)
I’ve taken a few strikeout overs at Coors Field so far … pretty sure they have all lost. Here’s to breaking that trend, Max!
The Braves’ young lefty impressed in his first start of the year against the Cubs, going six scoreless innings with five strikeouts and zero walks. It’ll be a bit tougher tonight in Colorado, where the Weather Rating is darn-near perfect, but Fried should be able to handle a Rockies lineup that has been underwhelming. Their team wRC+ of just 52 (100 is league average) ranks 28th in the league.
Since 2017, Fried has struck out more than one batter per inning in nearly 240 innings pitched at all levels. With a plus-money payout at over 4.5, I really like this bet. We’re projecting 7.1 strikeouts, nearly three strikeouts more than the 4.1 implied by these odds.
Padres SP Joey Lucchesi
The pick: Over 5.5 (+100)
My main man Joey Lucchesi is back on the bump tonight and takes on the Giants for the second time of the young season.
The Fathers’ southpaw has struck out seven and six batters in his first two starts, respectively, and I think he can keep the streak alive in San Francisco tonight.
Reason number one: The Giants’ offense is terrible. Last year it ranked toward the bottom of the league and this year is no different, as it is scoring a paltry 2.73 runs per game. That number will go up as the season goes on (I would hope), but the Giants are still going to be terrible at hitting.
Reason number two: The Giants rank 10th in the league in strikeout rate. Though you’d expect they’d be contact hitters given their lack of power (seven home runs as a team), you’d be wrong.
Reason number three: Lucchesi is legit. Last year, he struck out more than 10 batters per nine in his rookie season. This year, he has that number over 11 in the early going and hasn’t allowed a run. Striking out six Giants shouldn’t be too hard. We’re projecting 7.7.