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MLB Player Props: Can Woodruff Take the Angels to the Woodshed?


Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Brandon Woodruff.

  • Using the FantasyLabs Player Prop model, we've found value on the strikeout over/unders for Jake Odorizzi and Brandon Woodruff tonight.
  • Let's look at where the value lies with these two prop bets.

You know you’ve entered a terrible slump when Joey Lucchesi doesn’t even cash for you. That’s just what happened last night, as Lucchesi was horrid against the Giants.

Max Fried was able to keep the Rockies under control at Coors, allowing just one unearned run in six innings, but fell one strikeout short of cashing his over …

There are lots of pitchers to choose from that’ll make you want to rip your hair out offering great value tonight. Let’s get right into it!

MLB Player Props, Wednesday April 10

Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Twins SP Jake Odorizzi

The pick: Over 5.5 (+115)

Am I taking this prop because Jake Odorizzi led me to the least sweaty strikeout prop cash of the year? Perhaps.

However, as good as Odorizzi was in his first start, that’s how bad he was last time out. He didn’t even make it out of the first inning, in fact.

Tonight, he faces off against Thor and the Mets at Citi Field on a chilly night with the wind blowing in. With a total of just 7, this is looking like a potential pitcher’s duel.

The Mets’ team strikeout/at bat rate ranks fourth in the majors at 26.6%. Odorizzi probably won’t strike out 11 batters like he did in his first start, but he should do a bit better than his 0.2-inning, one-strikeout outing vs. the Phillies.

We’re projecting 6.5 strikeouts — 1.3 more than the 5.2 implied odds.

Brewers SP Brandon Woodruff

The pick: Over 5 (+115)

Milwaukee has a slew of young arms that it is relying on this year and Brandon Woodruff is one of ’em. The big righty has an ERA of 6.00 through two starts, but also 13 strikeouts in nine innings.

Tonight, he faces an Angels lineup that, unlike the Mets, has been very stingy when it comes to strikeouts. But, there’s one catch … and it’s a big one: Mike Trout will not be playing!

I don’t care who takes his spot in the lineup because the replacement will be infinitely worse than Trout. Trout is an on-base machine who sees a lot of pitches and can obviously do tons of damage. Without him, the lineup is a whole lot worse, which is clear by the Angels’ moneyline move from -105 to +137 since opening.

These odds imply just 4.6 strikeouts, but we’re projecting 6.2 for Woodruff.

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