MLB Player Props Picks Today: 2 Bets for Jake Odorizzi, Taijuan Walker (Wednesday, September 28)
Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Taijuan Walker #99 of the New York Mets.
- We're going all-in on the NL East for Wednesday's top player props.
- Action MLB analyst Tanner McGrath sees value in Braves vs. Nationals and Marlins vs. Mets.
- Find out why he's buying Jake Odorizzi and Taijuan Walker strikeout props.
There are 15 games on the MLB slate tonight, and that means there are 30 different MLB strikeout props we can play.
Check out my two favorites based on our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Jake Odorizzi Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-114)
|Braves vs. Nationals||Braves -210|
|First Pitch||7:05 p.m. ET|
I'm not the biggest believer in Jake Odorizzi. He definitely underperformed his expected statistics this season (4.61 ERA, 4.10 xERA), likely due to a strand rate about six points below his career average (66.2%).
Odorizzi also doesn't have elite strikeout stuff. His K/9 and Whiff rates actually increased year-over-year until about 2019, then took a stark downfall. He's hanging around 7.25 K/9 this season.
But this line is too low.
Odorizzi has hit this number in 10 of his past 16 starts, including three of his past four games. He's struck out 19 batters over his last 20 innings, including seven in a start against Pittsburgh.
The Nationals are generally a disciplined baseball team. But they've let their guard down in the final stretch of the season. The Nats have allowed six of the last seven opposing starting RHPs to cash their strikeout totals.
I see at least three plus-strikeout matchups for Odorizzi. Plus, the projections love him. Action Network's player props tool has him striking out five Nationals today while FanGraphs SaberSim projections have him striking out 4.9.
That's plenty of value to bet on this line.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-114)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Taijuan Walker Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
|Marlins vs. Mets||Mets -200|
|First Pitch||7:10 p.m. ET|
You have to bet on Taijuan Walker every time he faces the Marlins. He's ruined the Miami lineup over the past two seasons, most recently striking out 10 over just 87 pitches with a 31% CSW rate.
Taijuan Walker’s numbers against the Miami Marlins this season:
— Mathew Brownstein (@MBrownstein89) September 12, 2022
Including that last start, Walker has eclipsed 4.5 strikeouts in six of his last seven starts against the Marlins.
Walker's splitter is his main strikeout pitch, having posted a 27% Whiff rate this season. However, his slider has crept up to a 28% Whiff rate as well, giving him two plus-strikeout pitches.
The Marlins have a combined -31.3 Weighted Slider and Cutter Runs Created. They rank 24th in both stats.
The Marlins have played pretty well recent, and I think they provide some value on the ML. But this is a bad matchup from a strikeout perspective, and our Action Labs Protections have Walker striking out 5.6 Marlins tonight.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-135)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10