On this Monday, three hitters I like are Yandy Diaz, Kyle Schwarber, and Alec Burleson.
Let's dive into my MLB player props for Monday, June 22.
MLB Player Props Today
- Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100, betMGM)
- Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115, betMGM)
- Alec Burleson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105, betMGM)
Royals vs Rays Props
Playing in Tampa makes Yandy Diaz go under the radar, but there are not many hitters who are more consistent than him. Since the start of the 2023 season, Diaz is slashing .306/.377/.477, and he has hit over 20 home runs twice. He has made just one All-Star appearance in that span, but another one should be on the way. This season, he is hitting .326 with 12 doubles, 12 home runs and 49 runs batted in.
Diaz has raised that average of late with four consecutive multi-hit games. Seven of those hits have been singles, but he added another double yesterday as well. Another multi-hit game may be in the cards tonight.
Diaz is 4-for-10 with a double and a solo home run off Michael Wacha, who has reverse splits this season. Right-handed hitters are hitting .252 with 18 extra-base hits and a .752 OPS against Wacha. He has allowed four earned runs in three of his last four starts and at least three runs in all four.
Diaz is +145 for two hits tonight, but if his streak ends, he can still get two total bases with an extra-base hit. He is +343 for a double and +495 for a home run on DraftKings tonight.
Pick: Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Total Bases
Phillies vs Nationals Props
While it may be early to look at the home run title race, a case can be made that Kyle Schwarber saw Yordan Alvarez closing in on his lead. On Saturday, Schwarber homered three times as teammate Bryce Harper hit for the cycle. On Sunday Night Baseball, he added another home run to give him 29 on the year and a four-homer lead over Alvarez.
Schwarber also gets to do two of his favorite things tonight: hit in June and hit against the Nationals. Of his 369 career home runs, Schwarber has hit 74 in June, his most in any month. He has 26 career home runs against the Nationals, tied for his most against any team, and his .995 OPS against them is his fourth-highest mark versus any opponent.
On paper, the matchup is not ideal tonight, as Foster Griffin has limited left-handed hitters to a .165 batting average and a .555 OPS. However, he can be barreled up, as he's allowing an 11% barrel rate and has given up seven extra-base hits to left-handed batters. Schwarber has also had reverse splits over the last few years. This season, he has actually cleared two total bases at a higher rate against left-handed pitchers than against righties.
In addition to his four home runs over the weekend, Schwarber has a hit in nine of his last 10 games while recording 22 total bases over his last five. If he doesn't get Griffin, I like his chances of reaching two total bases against a suspect Nationals bullpen.
Pick: Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals Props
Alec Burleson may not have had the weekend that Diaz or Schwarber did, but he has been one of the hottest hitters in MLB. Burleson has recorded a hit in 19 of his last 20 games. In that span, he is hitting .313 with six doubles, six home runs, 20 RBIs and a .989 OPS. Tonight, he gets a great matchup against Merrill Kelly.
Against left-handed hitters, Kelly has allowed 11 doubles, two triples, 10 home runs and a .943 OPS. While he has not been great in general this season, he owns a 7.68 ERA in night games. He has also allowed a 15.3% barrel rate and a 43.2% hard-hit rate.
In addition to his strong traditional numbers, Burleson has been a Statcast darling this season. He ranks in the 69th percentile in barrel rate (11%) and in the 86th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, expected batting average and expected slugging percentage.
Kelly has gotten the better of him in the past, as Burleson is just 1-for-8 against him. However, given their current form, I like Burleson in this matchup. He has averaged 2.6 total bases over his last 20 games, clearing this line in 13 of them. I expect a 14th tonight.
Pick: Alec Burleson Over 1.5 Total Bases
MLB Player Props for Monday, June 22
- Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100, betMGM)
- Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115, betMGM)
- Alec Burleson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105, betMGM)
