Mariners vs Astros ALDS Game 1 Odds, Picks, Same Game Parlay

Mariners vs. Astros Game 1 Odds

It was an incredibly fun opening weekend of playoff baseball, and hopefully a profitable one for you as well! If you tailed my first playoff Same Game Parlay, you could have turned one unit into over four units thanks to a Guardians–Rays Game 2 script that played out exactly as I had imagined.

It was the first playoff game to go as long as it did scoreless, and that played perfectly into two parts of the wager: Under 6 runs and No Run Second Inning. Tyler Glasnow made things a bit scary with what was my favorite leg of the SGP, getting right up to five strikeouts, but he was pulled before he could get to six, paying out +419.

And if you had gone the bold route and taken the extra boosted SGP I mentioned in the final paragraph (score to be tied after five innings), you did even better, with a SGP win that paid out +1193.

With us now having results under our belt — just like I did for my WNBA betting advice — I am going to track how my article plays are doing here for the reader. (I won't even cheat and count that added play I gave — and won — in the first article, but I will be counting my contributions to the Action Network best bets columns.)

For today's SGP, we head to the ALDS where the Houston Astros play host to the Fun Gods themselves, the Seattle Mariners. Let's see if we can keep the winning going.

MLB article plays: 2-1 (169.4 percent ROI… very sustainable of course…)
MLB Action Network App plays: 277-303-34 (3.6 percent ROI… OK maybe that's a better sample)

The Parlay (+700):

• Kyle Tucker over 0.5 RBI (+145)
• Total Runs over 6.5 (-120)
• Justin Verlander to be credited with a win — Yes (+133)

Same-Game Parlay – Mariners vs. Astros Game 1

Kyle Tucker over 0.5 RBI

With the new playoff setup, this series is where the biggest difference shines through. The Astros, thanks to winning the AL West, are able to lead into this ALDS with their ace on the mound. The Mariners, on the other hand, are turning to their number three starter.

Now, Logan Gilbert has had an incredibly strong sophomore season, one in which he posted a 3.20 ERA and accounted for 3.2 WAR. However, there's a reason the M's went with Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray in front of him. There are a few cracks when it comes to Logan Lucky.

For one, his 4.11 xERA tells the story of a pitcher who got a bit fortunate. HIs advanced numbers don't exactly jump off the page, with a very high exit velocity allowed, and no real ability to get chases outside the zone with his somewhat pedestrian stuff (12th percentile on chase rate, per Baseball Savant). His slider has also consistently struggled throughout his big league career, creating -11.5 runs of value, per FanGraphs over the past two seasons.

The only pitchers with sliders that caused more harm since the start of 2021 (min. 200 IP): Dane Dunning, Yusei Kikuchi, Antonio Senzatela and Patrick Corbin — not exactly names you want to be surrounded  by.

Among qualified hitters over the past two seasons, the Astros have three of the top 16 hitters against sliders, including a pair of lefties: Yordan Alvarez and our man here, Kyle Tucker. Alvarez's markets are incredibly juiced after a monster season, plus Tucker gets to hit right after Alvarez and Alex Bregman (the other Astros hitter in the top 16 vs. sliders). Getting him at significant plus money for an RBI is a great start to the SGP.

Total Runs Over 6.5

As I just laid out, the path to Houston getting you nearly halfway to this bet in the first few innings — on their own — is there. It's not hard to imagine Gilbert's final line being something like 3 2/3 IP, 3 ER.

However, even in that hypothetical, we still need four more runs to win this leg. Say we sprinkle a few more Houston runs against the Mariners' pen, isn't there a fear of Verlander doing Verlander things and Houston winning 5-1 or 6-0?

Definitely. However, I think Seattle could give us at least a couple runs.

For one, Verlander himself is also a regression candidate if we go by the FIPs and xERAs of the world. His 2.49 FIP was stilling amazing but the 0.79 run gap between his ERA and FIP made him the fifth "luckiest" qualified pitcher this season by that metric. (I put that in quotes because I do still feel parts of ERA-FIP are a little bit in a pitcher's control — at least more than some others in the industry might believe.)

If we go by xERA (2.66) the gap is even larger, and by xFIP (3.23) the difference is now incredibly noticeably.

Of course, as anyone who tried fading JV during the regular season will tell you, Good luck with that regression, but it doesn't need to be anything crazy. If JV goes 6 IP 1 ER and the 'pen goes 3 IP 1 ER, and the Astros score their five runs — bang, this leg is covered.

It's also worth noting that both of these offenses got the chance to face off with these pitchers numerous times during the regular season. In fact, both opponents were the team each pitcher saw most frequently during the 2022 regular season. Gilbert saw the Astros four times and Verlander saw the Mariners an insane six (!) times during the regular season.

I will note that both pitchers had success in those outings, so if you are one to weigh that heavily, this SGP may not be for you. Personally, I weigh the fact that they have gotten so many looks at the pitcher this year heavier than the actual results in that relatively limited sample.

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Justin Verlander to be credited with a win — Yes

The final piece of the puzzle, and it just makes sense. It boosts the payout from +275 to +700 which doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, but I think it is because Caesars is reading the over 6.5 as negatively correlated with a JV win (which, to be fair, it technically is, of course). However, I think that's getting you a really big jump for a game script that has plenty of options.

Verlander went at least five innings in all but two of his 28 starts this season and is one of the rare postseason pitchers for whom I don't worry about the potential for a quick hook. Especially in what will be the Astros' first game of what they hope to be a long postseason run.

The regression fears laid out above also paint the picture of a pitcher who goes 6 IP 2 ER or maybe 3 ER, but with Gilbert as a fade that I love, there's the potential for plenty of wiggle room there.