MLB Playoff Odds, Picks and Predictions: Athletics vs. Astros Game 4 (Oct. 8)

Athletics vs. Astros Game 4 Odds

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The Oakland Athletics closed the gap in their American League Division Series on Wednesday to 2-1 with a 9-7 victory over the Houston Astros.

The Athletics had a number of strong offensive performances in Game 3, but were paced by Chad Pinder and his three hits, which included a double and home run to go along with four runs batted in. Tommy La Stella, Mark Cahna and Marcus Semien all also went deep for Oakland. But Pinder’s three-run home run in the seventh inning ultimately ended up being the deciding factor.

The Astros, meanwhile, had a strong offensive outing themselves. Overall, they had ten total hits and benefited from home runs out of Jose Altuve and Aledyms Diaz. The also had multi-hit games from Altuve, Michael Brantley and Alex Bregman.

Game 4 will feature a matchup between Oakland’s Frankie Montas and Zack Greinke, who was announced late due to arm soreness.

Oakland Athletics

Frankie Montas will make his first-ever postseason start in Game 4 for the Oakland Athletics. His regular season numbers were not great; over 53 innings pitched, Montas had a 4.74 FIP and allowed 1.7 HR/9 and 3.9 BB/9.

He finished the regular season on a high note, however. In his final start on September 27th, he pitched six innings and allowed no earned runs and recorded 13 strikeouts. He also pitched two innings in relief during the Wild Card round, allowing one earned run over two innings.

The Astros .319 wOBA and 102 wRC+ against right-handed pitching during the regular season were nothing to write home about, but they’ve been hitting the ball very well of late, averaging 5.8 runs per game over their past five. George Springer, who has been on fire during this series (.462 avg, 2 HR, 4 RBI), was especially strong against righties, hitting to a .387 wOBA and .271 ISO against them during the regular season.

Houston Astros

Zack Greinke will get the start for Houston after reports of arm soreness cast his status in doubt ahead of game time. Greinke didn’t have his best stuff during his appearance in the Wild Card round. He lasted just four innings, surrendering just one earned run on two hits and three walks.

His regular season was very strong, however. In 12 starts this year, he pitched to a 2.80 FIP, allowed just 0.81 HR/9 and had a solid 9.0 K/9. He was also relatively effective against the A’s in three regular season starts. In those games, he had a 3.71 ERA to go along with 17 strikeouts in 17 innings pitched.

The Athletics were league-average against right-handed pitching during the regular season with a .318 wOBA and 104 wRC+ in such matchups.

Betting Pick

With Greinke not at 100%, and a below-average pitcher in Frankie Montas on the mound for Houston, all indications are that we’ll likely see another high-scoring affair in this one.

When comparing the two starting pitching options, the clear advantage goes to the Astros and Grienke. That said, he almost didn’t make this start due to arm soreness and has not pitched more than five innings in any of his last five starts. Offensively, the Astros should also have no problems dealing with Montas and his below average 4.74 FIP and 1.7 HR/9 from the regular season.

This is another game that will likely come down to the bullpen, an area where both teams have been overworked of late given the recent high-scoring affairs. While Oakland has the advantage here (their 3.64 FIP during the regular season was third best in all of baseball), neither team is at full strength and will likely have to piece this one together in the middle innings.

At an over/under of 9, I like this game to go over again. I’m comfortable wagering a unit at the current odds of -115.

The PICK: Over 9 (-115)

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