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MLB Predictions Friday, Best Bets, Prop Picks Today — September 26

MLB Predictions Friday, Best Bets, Prop Picks Today — September 26 article feature image
5 min read

The stakes are high as the regular season enters its final weekend. There are several games with playoff implications on the slate for September 26, and our betting experts have you covered with their picks and predictions.

So, continue reading as today's MLB best bets are below.

Playbook

MLB Best Bets Today

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

GameTime (ET)Pick
Chicago Cubs LogoSt. Louis Cardinals Logo
2:20 p.m.
Chicago White Sox LogoWashington Nationals Logo
6:45 p.m.
Detroit Tigers LogoBoston Red Sox Logo
7:10 p.m.
Cincinnati Reds LogoMilwaukee Brewers Logo
8:10 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Sean Paul's Cubs vs Cardinals Best Bet: Back the Bats

Chicago Cubs Logo
Friday, September 26
2:20 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
St. Louis Cardinals Logo
Over 9 (+100)
bet365 Logo

By Sean Paul

You shouldn't have any faith in Miles Mikolas or Javier Assad. Both are heavy regression candidates, and Mikolas alone could allow a healthy amount of runs to an offense that's performed well lately.

Neither team has much to play for at this point, but in baseball, it's too hard to mail it in. So, I'd expect good offensive performances from both teams.

Pick: Over 9 (+100)



Bet Labs' White Sox vs Nationals Best Bet: System Suggests Over

Chicago White Sox Logo
Friday, September 26
6:45 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Washington Nationals Logo
Over 8.5 (-118)
bet365 Logo

By Bet Labs

Late in the MLB season, games played in hitter-friendly or high-variance environments — such as in Colorado, Arizona, and Washington — tend to go over the total when the closing line is modest (≤10.5). These markets often underestimate run production during the final stretch of the season due to weather conditions (e.g., dry heat in AZ/CO, humid air in DC) and expanded rosters, which increase bullpen volatility. Public perception around fatigue or playoff pressure may further depress totals, which creates value when betting overs in August to October for these specific home teams, particularly during regular-season games.

Overall, this system is 354-272-32 (57%) and has generated a 9% ROI. This season, the system is 29-24-6 (55%) and has produced a 4% ROI.

MLB Icon
Evan Abrams – Late Season Overs, Lower Totals — COL, ARI, WAS Home (YEAR)
the game was played during the 2025 or 2024 or 2023 or 2022 or 2021 or 2018 or 2017 or 2016 or 2015 or 2014 season
the game was played in September or August or October
the closing total is between 0 and 10.5
betting on the Over
the game is played during the Regular season
the home team is Washington Nationals or Arizona Diamondbacks or Colorado Rockies
$5,808
WON
354-272-32
RECORD
57%
WIN%

Pick: Over 8.5 (-118)



Kyle Murray's Tigers vs Red Sox Best Bet: Pressure, Travel May Impact Bats

Detroit Tigers Logo
Friday, September 26
7:10 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Boston Red Sox Logo
Under 8.5 (+100)
bet365 Logo

By Kyle Murray

This will be a must-win atmosphere for both teams as the American League playoff race has become extremely close with the Tigers collapsing over the past month.

Detroit was finally able to bounce back and get a win last night against Cleveland, and Boston will be traveling back from Toronto fresh off a loss. Neither pitcher is necessarily dominant, but I do have faith in Casey Mize, and with how cold the Tigers' offense has been, the under is projecting well.

Pick: Under 8.5 (+100)



Bet Labs' Reds vs Brewers Best Bet: Tonight's Over/Under Pick

Cincinnati Reds Logo
Friday, September 26
8:10 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Milwaukee Brewers Logo
Under 8 (-115)
bet365 Logo

By Bet Labs

This system targets evening games where public interest in the over is muted, recent home team scoring has run slightly hot, and subtle environmental signals align with lower-scoring outcomes. It also looks for games that start between 7:00 and 11:59 p.m. ET, and with the market's over percentage sitting below 50%, which suggests minimal public pressure on inflated totals.

Meanwhile, the wind direction — whether blowing in, across the field, or neutral — paired with moderate temperatures between 26-74 degrees, introduces natural resistance to run scoring. The home team is competitively priced on the moneyline and has a wide win rate window, providing no clear power imbalance that might inflate totals. When layered together, these filters isolate a soft edge in a game environment where bettors overlook the under due to recency bias and lack of extreme public conviction.

Overall, this system is 1502-1148-143 (57%) and has produced a 10% ROI. This season, that ROI is 7% as the system has gone 64-50-3 (56%).

MLB Icon
Evan Abrams / Bet Labs – Night time Unders with Wind and Recency Bias
the home team's 5 Game over percentage is between 20% and 67%
the home team's previous game OU margin is between -9 and -1.5
the wind direction is To Left or In or Right To Left or Left to Right or To Right or From Right or From Left or Left To Right or None
the temperature is between 26 and 74 degrees
the home team's game number is between 2 and 160
the home team's win percentage is between 35% and 100%
the home money is between -240 and 135
the over/under % is between 2% and 50%
the game started between 19:00 and 23:59 ET
betting on the Under
$26,830
WON
1502-1148-143
RECORD
57%
WIN%

Pick: Under 8 (-115)




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