Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Thursday, May 16.
MLB Predictions Thursday: Odds & Picks for Pirates vs Cubs, A's vs Astros
Pirates vs. Cubs
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+116 | 7.5 -105o/ -115u | +1.5 -210 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-134 | 7.5 -105o/ -115u | -1.5 +172 |
Jared Jones (PIT) vs. Justin Steele (CHC)
Justin Steele missed all of April with a hamstring strain; he hasn't completed five innings yet this season. The Pirates, who rank substantially better against lefties (11th in wRC+) than righties (30th) this season, touched Steele up on Saturday (4 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 2 BB, 3 K).
Steele's pitch modeling metrics align with last season (100 Stuff+). Given his starts and stops in the 2024 season, he likely doesn't have a feel for those pitches yet. However, based on the underlying pitch modeling metrics and his prior track record, Steele still fits within his projected FIP range (3.66 to 3.88).
That said, Jared Jones (3.08 xERA, 2.73 xFIP, 27.1% K-BB%), who leads all starting pitchers with a 135 Stuff+ rating and 115 Pitching+ rating, is the better arm. Jones' nearest pitch modeling competitors — Nick Pivetta (130 Stuff+) and Zack Wheeler (110 Pitching+) — are as distant from him as the gap between Wheeler and the 29th-ranked starter in Pitching+ (Zach Eflin, 105).
I project Jones as a better pitcher currently than Skenes, who I had set as a -114 favorite at home last Saturday against Steele and the Cubs.
Adjusting for home field, I'd project Skenes as a +116 underdog on the road in the same matchup, while I essentially make Jones and the Pirates a coin flip (projected +104) on the road at Wrigley.
Bets: Pirates F5 Moneyline (+111 or better) | Pirates Full-Game Moneyline (+113 or better)
Athletics vs. Astros
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+176 | 8.5 -115o/ -105u | +1.5 -118 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-210 | 8.5 -115o/ -105u | -1.5 -102 |
Joey Estes (OAK) vs. Cristian Javier (HOU)
Cristian Javier posted a 118 Stuff+ figure during his breakout year in 2022. His fastball averaged 93.9 mph, and his slider 79.9 mph — both offerings are down substantially two years later.
Javier has been dealing with a neck injury of late. His velocity, pitch modeling metrics and results have all suffered in recent starts. In his first start of the season, Javier averaged 92.6 mph on his fastball and 78.9 mph on his slider; those pitches were down to 91.4 mph and 77.6 mph in his most recent outing, and his Stuff+ rating has declined from 126 to 100 in-season.
Javier is throwing his fastball less often than ever (39.6%, down from 58.6% career) and he has introduced a changeup (136 Stuff+, 27% usage rate) to his arsenal.
Still, Javier's strikeout rate is now at a career-low 16.7% —compared to 33.2% in 2022 and 23.2% last season. His walk rate is also at a career high (13.9% vs. 9.9% career).
Projections don't expect much improvement (projected FIP range of 4.45 to 4.77) relative to his underlying indicators (4.72 xERA, 5.90 xFIP vs. 4.42 and 5.16 last season). However, that changeup could be Javier's salvation if the modeling metrics are legitimate.
Joey Estes (projected FIP range of 4.60 to 4.90) projects as a similarly effective arm as Javier. Scouting reports like his fastball and overall command, but don't see much upside in the secondary stuff.
He posted a 95 Stuff+ (up from 89 last season) in his 2024 debut (5 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 5 K) against the Mariners. The four-seamer still doesn't grade well (86 Stuff+, 87 last season), but the model likes his slider (116) and seldom-used cutter (129) more than it did last season.
The four-seamer looks like it can be effective if Estes elevates it above the hands, especially with count leverage.
Oakland's bullpen has shown better indicators this season (21st in xFIP, 22nd in K-BB%, 16th in Pitching+) than Houston's (29th, 29th and 27th, respectively).
Most, if not all, of that difference is Mason Miller, who has a negative FIP (-0.19) through 18 1/3 innings, alongside villainous indicators (0.75 xERA, 49.3% K-BB%, 155 Stuff+). Miller has struck out 38 of the 67 batters that he's faced.
Mason Miller just struck out the side vs HOU, so you are obligated to stop scrolling and watch pic.twitter.com/ZCKjCqvDN9
— Fuzzy (@fuzzyfromyt) May 15, 2024
I still view the Astros bullpen as the superior unit by about a quarter of a run on an ERA projection. They have an obvious position-player advantage both offensively (projected 119 vs. 98 wRC+ vs. righties) and defensively.
However, I'd project Oakland closer to +160 to +165 between the two halves of this matchup — Javier has a very low floor.
Bets: Athletics F5 Moneyline (+179 or better) | Athletics Full-Game Moneyline (+175 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Thursday, May 16
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- Minnesota Twins (-110, 0.25u) at Caesars (small to -111)
- New York Yankees / Minnesota Twins, Under 8.5 (-110, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -116)
- Oakland Athletics (+195, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +175)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+125, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to +113)
