Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Thursday, October 16.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Thursday, I preview Brewers vs. Dodgers and Blue Jays vs. Mariners. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Thursday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Thursday, October 16
Series Moneyline Corner
As I mentioned in this space on Wednesday, I currently project an edge on the Dodgers to sweep, win 4-0 (projected +140, listed +170 at DraftKings) or cover a 3.5-game spread in the NLCS against the Brewers. I would bet any of those props to +150, which is just under a two percent edge compared to my projection.
As of writing, the Dodgers are -190 or higher for Game 3, and odds of +170 to sweep imply that their Game 4 moneyline would be around -130 (-190 and -130 parlayed is +170) with Shohei Ohtani on the bump. I would probably make Ohtani at least a -130 favorite in Game 4, even if he and the Dodgers were playing on the road.
The Blue Jays gained 13.3% in my series projection (up from 16.1% to 29.4%) after narrowing their ALCS deficit to 2-1 on Wednesday. I don't project an edge on either side of the series line, as Toronto's best odds (+225) fall just short of my projected line (+240).
Additionally, you can find small edges in the odds for the Mariners to win 4-1 (projected +234, listed +235 at FanDuel) or 4-2 (projected +306, listed +310 at DraftKings), depending upon the book. Still, I would have wanted prices closer to +250 and +325, respectively, to have considered those wagers actionable.
Brewers vs. Dodgers
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +165 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -200 |
TBD vs. Tyler Glasnow
The Dodgers will start Tyler Glasnow on Thursday in the same rare timeslot (just after 3 p.m. PT) as his Game 4 gem against the Phillies (6 IP, 2 H, 3 BB, 8 K), where he benefited from shadows throughout the majority of his appearance.
2025 was a down year overall for the 6-foot-8 righty (3.25 xERA, 2.72 xFIP, 17.2% K-BB%, 94 Pitching+), as his fastball velocity dipped to its lowest mark (95.7 mph) since 2017, and his pitch modeling metrics fell along with it (Stuff+ down from 108 to 98, botERA up from 3.46 to 4.39 year over year). Still, after some extended rest during the postseason, Glasnow's velocity spiked to 96.7 mph in NLDS Game 4, in line with both 2024 and his career average (96.3 mph).
The Dodgers have been able to save their bullpen through two games of the NLCS, thanks to dominant efforts from Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They needn't push Glasnow too aggressively on Thursday if he doesn't have his best stuff; Emmet Sheehan and Justin Wrobleski are viable multi-inning options.
Combined, Glasnow's outs (15.5), hits (3.5), and walks (1.5) props suggest he's likely to face around 21 batters (after factoring for juice), compared to a 2025 average of 20.3 per start.
Assuming he does face 21 hitters, Glasnow would be expected to strike out 6.49 hitters based upon his career strikeout rate, 6.01 hitters if you use his 2025 strikeout rate, and 6.76 hitters if you use his strikeout rate from 2024, at higher velocity and with more similar stuff to his last start. But if you give him the same 21-hitter workload against the Brewers' strikeout rate (20.1% vs. RHP post-trade deadline), you would knock his projection down closer to 4.2 strikeouts.
On balance, I would place Glasnow's projection around 6.25 strikeouts for this matchup on a weather-neutral day. Considering the likely shadows, this is a rare case where I might bump the Glasnow projection up closer to 6.75. Still, the Brewers excel at strikeout avoidance, and I'd anticipate money to hit Glasnow's under, and to potentially get an actionable price (-150 or better) on Glasnow over 5.5 Strikeouts by late morning, if not closer to gametime.
While you wait, consider betting Glasnow Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (+125; bet to +100) or Under 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+100; bet to -110), both of which should correlate with late afternoon shadows disrupting Milwaukee's contact quality.
The Brewers will have to cobble together a pitching plan involving some combination of Jacob Misorowski (3.32 xERA, 3.66 xFIP, 20.5% K-BB%, 2.84 botERA, 129 Pitching+) and Jose Quintana (5.18 xERA, 4.92 xFIP, 7% K-BB%, 5.11 botERA, 91 Pitching+) for bulk innings, before doing the same thing in a potential Game 4 (likely with Tobias Meyers and Chad Patrick as longer options).
Pat Murphy has already permitted the Dodgers' superior offense to face each of his relievers at least once, and both Aaron Ashby and Abner Uribe (both of whom have pitched three days since Sunday) have seen them twice.
Conversely, while the Dodgers' bullpen is the far shakier of the two, the Brewers' lineup has only gotten a look at Roki Sasaki (and briefly, Blake Treinen).
My game and total projections might change once the Brewers announce a starter and indicate a more coherent pitching plan. As of Wednesday night, I set the Dodgers as -177 favorites and projected the total at 7.91 runs, but I don't see value in the side or total.
Still, as I mentioned above in the futures section, you can essentially parlay the Dodgers to win Games 3 and 4 in the series prop market at a near guaranteed edge, inferred using their Game 3 pricing alone.
Assuming the average price is -180 on the Dodgers for Games 3 and 4, those fair odds should be +142; if the price is -190, the fair odds to sweep should be +133; and if the price is -200, they drop to +125; +150 is a more than reasonable price target.
Pick: Correct Series Score: Dodgers 4-0 (bet to +150) | Tyler Glasnow Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (bet to +100) | Tyler Glasnow Under 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (bet to -110)
Blue Jays vs. Mariners
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +115 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -135 |
Max Scherzer vs. Luis Castillo
After betting on the Over and enjoying an explosion of runs in Seattle on Wednesday — easiely the highest scoring postseason game (17 runs) in the history of T-Mobile Park (average of 4.67 runs previously) — I'm on the Under for Game 4, despite the prescene of one of the more hitter-friendly plate umpires, Alfonso Marquez (career 11.2% K-BB%; more than 2.5% below the MLB average).
Marquez is one of the more profitable Over umpires in our Action Labs database, with a career 315-273-28 record to the Over (53.% win, +3.6% ROI), including a 19-9-4 record in 2025 (12-13-1 in 2024, 20-16-1 in 2023, 16-12-1 in 2022, 12-17-1 in 2021).
Still, I expect Luis Castillo to continue to pitch well at home (3.77 xFIP, 17.9% K-BB% at home; 4.49, 12.9% on the road in 2025).
The market doesn't anticipate Max Scherzer (4.78 xERA, 4.55 xFIP, 16.5% K-BB%, 105 Pitching+, 3.87 botERA) will survive the fourth inning. I'd anticipate that Chris Bassitt (4.18 xERA, 3.84 xFIP, 15.5% K-BB%, 95 Pitching+, 4.23 botERA) will be ready to piggyback after Scherzer turns over the Seattle lineup as early as one time, and at most twice.
Still, the Mariners benefited far more from consecutive blowouts in this series, finally resting and resetting their "A" bullpen to potentially finish the ALCS at home in Game 5, as they did against the Tigers. I'd anticipate four to five innings of Castillo, followed by three to six outs each from Eduard Bazardo, Gabe Speier, Matt Brash, and Andres Munoz; Seattle's most effective arms, arguably the best quartet of high-leverage relievers in the AL, and potentially second-best in MLB behind the Padres.
John Schneider will do his best to play the matchups with his own high-leverage arms, but the Blue Jays do not have the same quality or depth of high-velocity arms as the Mariners do. Post-deadline, Seattle ranked seventh among MLB teams in bullpen Pitching+, while Toronto finished 23rd; and the teams ranked fourth vs. 28th in bullpen botERA over the same span.
While the Blue Jays field the far superior defensive squad (4th vs. 18th in Defensive Runs Saved; 9th vs. 27th in DRS), the Mariners make up for that differential with more offensive firepower (1st vs. 11th wRC+ in September; 1st vs. 10th in ISO; 2nd vs. 8th in SLG) and better starting pitching.
I projected the Mariners as -123 favorites and set the Game 4 total at 7.1 runs; bet Under 7.5 to -110.
I'm also expecting relatively quick hooks for both starting pitchers — and heavy bullpen usage from both managers — in a crucial Game 4.
Take Castillo Under 14.5 Outs Recorded to -110, and Scherzer Under 11.5 (-125) to 9.5 (+110).
Pick: Under 7.5 (bet to -110)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, October 16
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Sides and Totals
- Blue Jays / Mariners Under 7.5 (+100, 1u) at ESPNBet; bet to -110
Player Props
- Tyler Glasnow, Under 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+100, 0.1u) at BetMGM: bet to -110
- Tyler Glasnow, Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (+125, 0.1u) at Caesars; bet to +100
Futures and Series Props
- Correct Series Score: Dodgers 4-0 (+170, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to +150 (gave out on Wednesday)
